Verified FBN Member (OK)
Marketing

Will corn hit $5, $6, or higher? No wrong answers... just curious what people think...

Verified FBN Member (NE)

I'm still in the $5 camp. Seems like the market wants to wait until fall before it gets there.

Verified FBN Member (NE)

I have given up and dumped the rest of my old crop today.

maybe next year.

Verified FBN Member (IN)

You still waiting for $5 Cale?

Verified FBN Member (NE)

I am not waiting for $5 anymore. I am half sold on 2019 corn and will sell the rest at $ 4.00 and 4.25 cash.

Verified FBN Member (NE)

I'm back in the $5 dollar camp Eric!

Verified FBN Member (WI)

I'm in the $5 camp too. Not sure about soybeans. Just seems like the last couple years if your wrong your wrong big

Verified FBN Member (MN)

I think $5 also. Our basis is still -50 cents. Must be a lot of corn still out there.

Verified FBN Member (ND)

NE ND basis is -.65 I think 5$ is possible but I agree with above responses, going to take well after harvest to get it there

Verified FBN Member (IA)

Nw Iowa basis is +11

Verified FBN Member (MO)

I sold corn today at a +20 on basis

Verified FBN Member (MS)

I think it'll hit $5. Unless we are all very wrong on crop yield and acres. $6 it would have to be way worse than we think

Verified FBN Member (MT)

Being that corn is close to winter wheat in price. I don’t raise corn and have no emotional “want/need” directly to corn other than corn is king and wheat will fallow. Umm, I doubt it will hit $5. I hope it does. This late in the season I have my doubts. I just think corn is overly bullish at the moment. Mostly because it is so close to hard red wheat in price. Now, I don’t see why wheat is not $6-7 with all the world reports I hear. Are the stocks really high? If they are, it will take more than a year of huge world problems to get the price up.

Verified FBN Member (MN)

I've put a lot of miles on my pickup lately and haven't seen many areas that look bad. Average or slightly behind, sure. But bad, not a lot of areas. I'm starting to wonder if the USDA is a lot more accurate right now than most of us think. I think $5 Chicago price is attainable but I personally wouldn't bet on it. I can't see where more bullish news will come from unless the crop actually starts coming in short or we snap into a big drought soon.

Verified FBN Member (OK)

Thanks, that’s great info for us guys out here not close to the real action in the Midwest, appreciate it.

Verified FBN Member (MS)

yeah there’s a good bit of corn that looks good in Mississippi but we don’t really matter here.

Verified FBN Member (ND)

Corn looks good here in northern ND actually we could use rain

Verified FBN Member (SD)

Southeast South Dakota I would throw a rough estimate of 25% planted

Verified FBN Member (IN)

Much of Indiana, Ohio and Michigan not planted or planted very late.

Verified FBN Member (IL)

I'm thinking the price will peak next summer. There's still a lot of inventory out there and it won't be until next summer that carry over really gets low.

That said, an early frost could really throw things too...

Verified FBN Member (IL)

In our immediate area, I would guess 10% didn’t get planted, the rest looks just ok. Many guys in our area pushed corn planting out 5-10 days past the PP date. I’m just wondering how much of the rest of the country did the same. If they did push corn planting later, along with the current stocks, I think $4.50- $5 is about all we’ll get for now. If a majority of the country turns off hot and dry, the story might change.

Verified FBN Member (TX)

7.75 turn row south tx

Verified FBN Member (IA)

I think if we hit $5 it won't stop there. In my opinion we are looking at either 4 or 6. Not going to gamble too much in either direction.

Verified FBN Member (KS)

Fringe acres here,

40% wasn't planted until midJune

which is 10 weeks behind our normal. It's strictly an insurance play. But the story is Illinois/Indiana.

Boots on the ground say big problems.

$5.50 is in my headlights.

Verified FBN Member
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Verified FBN Member (AL)

I am hoping it'll get to 5 dollars

Verified FBN Member (MO)

No

Verified FBN Member (SD)

If the government told the truth, corn would be over $5 already

Verified FBN Member (ID)

I'm not sure if it would, but the cost of inputs and machinery would be far lower.

Verified FBN Member (ND)

I can see corn hitting $5-5.50. Basis has to help us out.

Verified FBN Member (MO)

I was thinking $6 plus. Now I’d like to see $4.70 again. Good luck

Verified FBN Member (IA)

4.70 is a damn respectable gross revenue per acre

Verified FBN Member (NE)

Yes it will hit 5:00 pretty soon now but you will have to deliver 2 bushels to get it

Verified FBN Member (IA)
(edited)

Drove thru I74 corridor IL and IN last week. Was expecting to see much worse conditions than I did. IN behind IL.

Verified FBN Member (IL)

In the mid to high $4.00 area and not until January .

Verified FBN Member (MO)

I’m now hoping for above $4. I’ve know idea how long I’ll have to wait. Thankful for a nice basis.

Verified FBN Member (IL)

Hope it stays over 4.

Verified FBN Member (IL)

Until the demand destruction ends, and the conversations about it changes, good luck with anything other than what we have.

Verified FBN Member (WV)

I think Mar 20 corn can get to 4.20, only if a trade deal is inked prior to Mar expiration. After that, I think corn and soybean prices are going to be bleak for next 2 yrs. Too much world ending stocks. Once trade deal is signed, I'm pricing next years grain.

Verified FBN Member (SD)

If the USDA would tell the truth corn would be 4.50 now.

Verified FBN Member (MN)

US needs a 2 year disaster for the price to go up. We farmers are too efficient. Produce such a large carry over every year.

I think the carry over for corn and soybeans will be at about 0 after 2020. There is enough supply to supply the buyers. No one needs to come in and drive the price up.

I am thinking buyers are deciding whether to buy there corn now or wait til July to see what type of corn crop we will produce in 2020. Farmers need a 2 year disaster to drive the price up to $5-$6.

Trade war is really a non issue... china has african swine flu... they have no need for our soybeans... thats gonna take several years til they get rid of that disease and start producing pigs again.

Verified FBN Member (MT)

I don't predict markets anymore. Get a price that works and sell hoping it will go up. When the bills are paid then I can "play" the markets. I have not been able to play the markets much at in the past years.

Generally, I don't see a huge price change up or down until next Julyish. Then people will be getting an idea what we have for 2020.

Verified FBN Member (MI)

4.25 maybe test 4.50 only on weather, if we plant and make a crop as big say predicting will will test lows that’s some may not remember from years back. And as you know trade is the wild card here just to hold prices stable as they are now.

Verified FBN Member (IA)

$5 by 2025. Likely. In 2020, unlikely

Verified FBN Member (MN)

I would play the range between 3 dollar corn and 4.50 until the market proves otherwise. Watch market psychology. If farmers quit believing we can get $5 corn it would be a time to get long.

Verified FBN Member (KS)

5.00 cash?

Yes

Verified FBN Member (MN)

There is no way we see $5 corn anytime in the near future. My technicals say 4.25 is the most you will see by May 1st. Carryouts are too big going into the year and usually El Niño years give you 5-10 percent above trend yields. I could give you technical answers to it but you won’t understand. As far as last year $5 corn was a red herring. Many farmers passed up the best prices they have seen in 5 years.

Verified FBN Member (KS)

.75 cent basis= 5.00

Verified FBN Member (MN)

Focus on Chicago prices because basis is local. You could talk to a grower down south with a positive basis that could get 4.50 every year.

Verified FBN Member (ND)

I'd be happy with $4 corn in SE North Dakota.

Verified FBN Member (ND)

with $.35 basis we are now $4.31. $5 corn is feasible but foreign demand and accurate USDA estimates is crucial to meeting this lofty goal.

Verified FBN Member (MI)

Very interesting to listen to the comments from nine months ago I was in a five dollar camp. In Moneyball as Brad Pitt would say we live in a whole different world now. Good luck to all the farmers

Verified FBN Member (KS)

I think Dec 2020 has a max upside around $3.90

With great growing conditions I believe $3.00 futures or lower is very possible. Another dagger will be the basis.

Verified FBN Member (IN)

Some day, but not in the near future.

Verified FBN Member
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Verified FBN Member (NE)

Yes it will if we keep printing dollars

Verified FBN Member (MN)

Nope!

Verified FBN Member (IA)

5 doesn't seem impossible in years prices rise during harvest

Verified FBN Member (NE)

This is a great thread to read now.

what does everybody think Today? 12/30/20

Verified FBN Member (OK)

I know right!!! Talk about history

Verified FBN Member (OH)

Sold corn today for February 21 for 5.03

Verified FBN Member (IL)

Bids at the terminal for Jan & Feb 13.50 soybeans and 5.20 corn oct/nov 11.42 and 4.42 respectively

Verified FBN Member (NE)

Yes because I don’t any left to sell

Verified FBN Member (IL)

Same, going to hurt hauling that March 3.60 contract

Verified FBN Member (OK)

How about now?

Verified FBN Member (NE)

I have a bin full of $8 corn and a bin full of $20 beans.

Verified FBN Member (KS)

My bin is empty...but my E*TRADE account is full of call options.

Verified FBN Member (ND)

corn already hit $5 this week. waiting to see what's next during 2021.

Verified FBN Member (KS)

Corn will stay strong. How high it goes has many variables. US growing season problems is the Catalyst for how high it goes. $8 has been proven.

Verified FBN Member (NE)

Checking in with everybody. how about now?

Verified FBN Member (NE)

I think corn could go to $7

Verified FBN Member (IN)

We’re going need it to be there for 22, with such high input cost!

Verified FBN Member (NE)

All right I think it's time to make new targets what's everybody's opinion?

$10 corn

$30 bean's??

Verified FBN Member (NE)

I hope not. Imagine what that would do to break evens

Verified FBN Member (NE)

I imagine everybody would be able to break even.

Verified FBN Member (NE)

It’s not the current price. It’s when it goes back down. Remember inputs go down slower then cash price.

Verified FBN Member (IN)

Large round bales for sale

More info

Hymansmiths@gmail.com

Verified FBN Member (NE)

How much per bale and what kind of quality?

Verified FBN Member (IN)

We have horses sheep cattle and rabbits

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