Releasing the 2022 Canadian Plantings Report
With current global volatility, what Canadian farmers are planting will be a significant driver of agricultural markets. Planting intentions for 2022 will be closely followed. The FBN® Canada Plantings Report provides one of the first major survey-based estimates of Canadian farmers’ planting intentions for the year.
From late March through April 18, FBN polled Canadian farmers about planting intentions. The survey collected the respondent’s postal code, as well as planted acreage for key crops for the year 2021 and intentions for 2022. Survey responses that were missing or that provided inconsistent data were removed from the results. Responses were aggregated across provinces. Year-on-year changes by province and crop were then computed as well. The following maps show acreage changes versus last year.
There were several goals of the survey but most importantly, we want to deliver on the FBN promise of putting farmers first. That means enriching all the survey responses with analytics and data science to return insights back to our Members, helping them make knowledgeable decisions that drive an ROI focused business.
We remove all personal and operational related details from survey responses. And the resulting data is maintained as confidential and exclusive to FBN.
The report was slightly bullish on canola. It projects canola acreage will be at 21.2 million acres compared to 22.5 million acres in 2021 (a 6% decline year-over-year).
Producers in Saskatchewan will see the largest decline, largely in favor of spring wheat.
Patience is viewed as the path forward for canola. The global situation has not improved from a supply standpoint and with risk present for Ukraine’s crop, the EU could be a key buyer of Canadian canola.
FBN’s report is neutral to slightly bullish on spring wheat. Spring wheat production is expected to be up 10% with 18.2 million acres planted compared to only 16.5 million last year.
With global supply concerns still top of mind, the balance sheet heading into the 2022 planting season is tight but the bias is still supportive of wheat prices.
The outlook for barley is slightly bullish. Barley acreage will dip 9% from last year with projected acres to be about 7.5 million versus 8.3 million acres in 2021.
Barley prices are attractive for this year with another year of strong cash bids expected. With the situation in Ukraine still volatile, their supplies will likely be limited but patience is still warranted.
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