Wrapping Up 2019/20 and Looking to 2020/21

Rejeana Gvillo

Sep 08, 2020

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July exports by destination were released this week, and July 31 stocks were also published. That wrapped up the data needed to complete the balance sheets for the 2019/20 marketing year for most crops. No major surprises were in the monthly export or ending stocks data sets.    

Export season wraps up with a strong finish

Wheat exports finished strongly, nearly closing the gap between this and last year. Most commodity export programs outpaced last year, with soybeans and wheat being the exceptions. And that was during a year when the railroad industry faced several challenges. The weaker dollar has helped exports, but generally demand was strong. That demand was mainly from non-China countries, with China’s imports from Canada down for barley, canola, flax, soybeans and wheat, year over year. The weaker purchasing of soybeans from China did hamper that export program, whereas China’s strong pea demand boosted that export total. Most export totals fell near expectations with no major surprises. 

2019/20 ending stocks mostly as expected

The July 31 stocks report had few surprises based on our expectations. Year over year, several commodities had reductions in stocks. Barley, oats and non-durum wheat stocks were higher versus a year ago, but canola, lentils, durum and pea stocks all fell. The updated totals did not lead to any significant changes to our pricing outlooks for crops. 

Next year’s stocks outlook

For the 2020/21 crop year, we are currently expecting the following directional changes to stocks. We will provide more details about the balance sheet and price expectations in the following weeks.

FBN's take on what this means for the farmer

While we had a solid finish to the 2019/20 crop year, we are positioned to generally expand supplies and stocks for most crops for 2020/21. This is one of the key reasons we are not overly optimistic about prices for several commodities.

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Rejeana Gvillo

Sep 08, 2020

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