A Little Relief from the Recent Drowning Rains

Some farmers should be seeing a short-lived but welcomed drier pattern over the next 7 days according to recent NOAA forecast runs. The map below shows forecasted 7 day cumulative rainfall in percent of normal rainfall, as well as the many river locations that are recording flood stage after weeks of heavy rain. 

With the exception of a northeasterly swath across eastern Nebraska, northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, the major Midwest corn and soybean producing areas are forecast to see below- to near-normal precipitation.

Compared to the prior 30 days, Midwest farmers, particularly in the eastern Corn Belt, finally have a chance to get corn acres in the ground.

In contrast, the map below shows the previous 30 day cumulative rainfall as a percent of normal. Much of the southern Plains and the eastern Corn Belt ranked among the top 15 wettest on record for this period.

Monday’s USDA Crop Progress Report showed the effect heavy spring rains have had with Illinois 56 percentage points behind its 5 year average corn planting pace; meanwhile, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Ohio tallied more than 25 percentage points behind. Planting progress over the next 15 days may be critical to achieving average or better corn grain yields.

If you haven’t already, it’s about time to start your planters!

Forecast from NOAA GFS FV3, 20190510 06Z; historic rainfall from PRISM; 30y monthly normals from PRISM.