FBN pulled historical rainfall data for the first half of July and examined differences across recent years. The data for 2020 include forecasts through July 15. What is clear is that 2017 was dry versus 2018 and 2019 for the first half of July, and so far we are wetter now than in 2017. There are also several districts where rainfall is higher versus the previous two years from July 1-15.
No major threats are present right now for spring wheat or canola. There are pockets of concerns with some producers reporting flooded fields and others reporting dry conditions. Statistics Canada reports data by district, breaking down acreage, yield and production. FBN pulled the top two spring wheat producing districts in 2019 and looked at cumulative rainfall there. The top two regions are located in Alberta and known as “District 2” and “District 4B.” District 2 is in South Central Alberta while District 4B is just east of Edmonton. The two regions were also in the top five for canola production in 2019. Cumulative rainfall is above the average with the forecast calling for additional rains.
While 2017 was a dry year for Canada, FBN wants to point out that both canola and wheat yields in 2017 were above the yields recorded for 2018 and 2019. Assuming yields come in around the five-year average results in canola production around 19 million tonnes and non-durum wheat around 27 million tonnes.
While there are pockets of concerns across the Prairies, no widespread production issues are currently present. Despite no major production concerns yet, the canola and non-durum balance sheets are forecast to have tightening stocks for the coming crop year. The non-durum wheat price outlook has improved recently based on the cut in planted area.
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