2022 In-Season Regional Market Updates: Nicole Tonak

Nicole Tonak

Jul 29, 2022

July 29 update

Grain markets had a nice finish to July month end, recovering losses built into the markets earlier in the month. As it has been discussed previously, weather markets are very unpredictable and that’s what we saw the last couple weeks. Going forward, the weather forecast for the first 10 days of August shows the heat dome coming back and bringing above normal temperatures with little/no rain for Central IL, most of IA, Southern MN and into SD. This could be critical especially in the Dakotas/parts of MN as the corn has moved into the pollination stage. Agronomists consider 86° the optimum temperature for corn and soybean growth.

Nicole Tonak is an FBN Market Advisor Regional Representative serving members in parts of the Upper Midwest through the Pacific Northwest - Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington and Wyoming.

Click here to download Nicole’s virtual business card.

Temperatures above 86° have the potential to reduce yields, and forecasts are calling for triple digits over the next week. Therefore, I am questioning if we will be able to sustain current yield forecasts of 170 on corn and 50 for beans. I want to voice a note of caution here though in chasing this rally. If (...when?) rain enters the forecast, we should expect a sharp correction from these levels we have appreciated. Export demand has been weak and could leave longs exposed to a significant use reduction in the August WASDE.

The first shipment of grain from the Ukrainian Black Sea Port was set to take place at the end of July. A couple things to note here are vessels already loaded will be first to move. These vessels have been loaded and sitting in the port for some time and there is question as to grain quality once exported. Second issue is the discussion as to where the “safe channel” will be. Finding a safe passage is concerning as they will not be de-mining passage to/from the ports as it was thought to be too time consuming, potentially taking up to 4 months to do it properly.

On the “Home Front,” corn seems to have made considerable gains from the late plant and those areas that have caught some very timely rains are looking pretty good. Soybeans are still behind but hanging in there. The next couple of weeks will tell a story of how well these row crops can sustain with little moisture to be had. Small grain harvest has started in a few areas of the region and will be going full force shortly.

I do not have any local yield or protein data yet to share, but I would love to hear from you and how things are going on your farm. To ask a question or shoot me a message/picture of your harvest progress, use the above link to view my contact information. You can also reach me at 605-221-8296.

Below are recent soybean and corn yields estimates from FBN®.

Upcoming events

Check out these upcoming events in our region. For more details click here.

July 21 Update

In the Upper Midwest, compared to corn and beans the wheat crop is doing well during this warm growing season; and seems to be on track for the most part, maybe a little behind, but looking good.

Corn is improving, aside from a few pockets in SE South Dakota/SE North Dakota and parts of MN that have missed out on timely rains. Those areas in MN are starting to see the corn roll and will need moisture soon.

Soybeans are struggling the most and are slow to catch up. Although plants are small, the overall bean crop will be about average as things look today.Western MT caught a rain this past weekend, helping crop production there. The moisture was a welcome addition and should help achieve near average yields for the area.

Switching gears to Feed, the Alfalfa crop looks good. Second cuttings are underway or done, and if we are blessed with timely rain over the next 30 days, we could see third ,maybe even 4th, cuttings in prime areas yet this season.

Another point worth mentioning is that ditch cutting is underway. This grass cutting is pushing the grasshoppers into fields, in the more drought-stricken pockets throughout the Region. Talking with fellow colleagues on FBN Direct, this is worth mentioning and reminding producers to be checking fields for possible insect damage.

As an FBN Market Advisor/Broker, when working with our customers, we not only discuss the commodities market but also the price volatility in the livestock markets, especially cattle. In addition to, or instead of using futures and options, FBN can work with livestock growers to protect prices using the Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) policy. This is a federally subsidized insurance program used to lock in a floor price for your cattle and protect against a price decline in the marketplace. Producers need flexibility while being proactive in managing their price risk and LRP offers that opportunity. If you would like to learn more about this product and how to manage your risk, contact your local market advisor who can get you in touch with one of our experienced FBN Crop insurance agents.

Hit and miss rains have led to varying drought indications throughout the country. It's no surprise crop health throughout the region is varying so much. The below NASA Grace map provides a great visual of soil moisture inconsistencies throughout the country (white indicated normal soil moistures levels during this time of the year with colors on the red spectrum indicating drought level and blue spectrum indicating elevated soil moisture levels).

Source: NASA, https://nasagrace.unl.edu/ 

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Nicole Tonak

Jul 29, 2022