See national chem pricing trends in the FBN Research report
The fertilizer and nutrient market remains the single largest variable expense for many U.S. row crop producers. After the historic volatility of the 2021-2022 period, the market continues to present challenges defined by high input costs and a critical strain on farm profitability.
Fertilizer prices surged to record highs in 2022. While prices have retreated since those extreme peaks, they remain high compared to historical norms.
The single most critical factor affecting farm budgets today is the fertilizer price-to-crop ratio (affordability index). For example, with current nitrogen prices of ~$0.60/lb or more and current corn prices of $4.50/bushel, this index currently sits at 0.15, levels not seen since peak prices in 2022.
The current dynamic of elevated fertilizer costs combined with softening crop receipts has pushed this ratio to some of the worst levels in history for phosphate and potash, meaning it takes a historically large number of bushels to cover the cost of fertilizer.
The primary drivers of fertilizer price volatility are production costs (natural gas) and the ever-shifting landscape of global trade policy.
Energy remains a critical factor, as natural gas is the primary feedstock for producing nitrogen fertilizers. Projected rising natural gas prices in the U.S. and Europe due to growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity could lead to higher nitrogen production costs.
Countervailing duties (CVDs), which are trade remedies designed to offset foreign subsidies, have had a long-term, durable impact on the U.S. phosphate market, including products like DAP and MAP.
CVDs were imposed primarily on imports from Morocco and Russia. A study from the American Journal of Agricultural Economics found these duties increased U.S. phosphate prices by approximately 34% compared to a counterfactual scenario, making them a significant and ongoing cost factor.
The U.S. imposed and subsequently modified sweeping reciprocal tariffs in 2025, which created market turbulence but ended with a significant policy shift.
Initially in April 2025, reciprocal tariffs were threatened at 25% on key fertilizer products but eventually settled at 10%. This immediately raised import costs and impacted trade flows. As of November, fertilizer products were mostly exempted from tariffs, leading to relief in the market and expectations of lower prices for spring 2026.
The tariff removal in late 2025 is the most significant positive development for input costs.
Importers should soon be able to bring in product at a lower landed cost, providing some certainty for the upcoming season. However, despite declining spot prices, retailers and manufacturers must work through high-cost inventory acquired during the price spikes, which constrains immediate, sharp price drops. Growers should monitor price movement closely and be strategic about their purchases.
Agronomically, growers should aim to maximize efficiency of every dollar spent on nutrients. Conduct soil tests to identify deficiencies and look for variable rate opportunities. Deficiencies can also surface on important micronutrients, such as zinc and iron, which are critical for increasing crop health.
In today's volatile input landscape, securing maximum return on every dollar spent is crucial.
By choosing FBN for your fertilizer needs, you gain access to an efficient, streamlined supply chain that cuts through traditional markups. This approach allows you to acquire premium nutrients at prices that maximize your purchasing power.
FBN provides transparent pricing and high-quality products, ensuring that your investment in soil fertility translates directly into the greatest possible yield and profitability for your operation.
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Crop Nutrition 101: Everything Growers Need to Know About Crop Nutrition
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