How Did FBN® Planting Intentions Analysis Compare to USDA?

Rebecca Willison

Mar 29, 2024

Yesterday, the USDA released the 2024 Prospective Plantings report with key findings that U.S. farmers will plant less corn and more soybeans this year.

For the past four years, FBN has been surveying members throughout the month of March to estimate acreage for key crops prior to the USDA report. This year, members who contributed data to the survey received the report on Wednesday, with public release on the same day as the USDA report.

Click here to access the free FBN 2024 Planting Intentions Report.

Reuters released a summary of analysts’ estimates prior to the USDA report, with the average trade estimate at 91.8 million acres for corn and 86.53 million acres for soybeans. USDA’s estimates released yesterday were 90 and 86.5 million acres for corn and soybeans, respectively. Both estimates were down one million acres from the Ag Outlook Forum in February. 

2024 FBN Acreage Projection Closer to USDA vs. Trade (click image to enlarge)

Most analysts were bearish on corn, while FBN projected a lower and more accurate prediction. The analyst average was right on the mark for USDA’s soybean projection, and FBN was just slightly higher. (Click the image to enlarge.) Click here to access the report.

FBN’s performance here shows the power of the network of FBN farmers. Thank you to everyone who participated in the survey!


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Rebecca Willison

Mar 29, 2024

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