FBN Soybean Yield Predictions Up to 47.5 BPA

FBN Soybean Yield Predictions Up to 47.5 BPA

Walter Kunisch Jr.

Sep 17, 2019

FBN℠ released its sixth quantitative-driven soybean yield assessment of the 2019 growing season on September 11. The model output provides yield estimates made at the county, region, state and national levels. The FBN soybean yield model uses crop condition metrics, weather/hydrological inputs, satellite imagery and crop development as input values.

Using these inputs, FBN is predicting a +0.3 BPA increase in national soybean yield, from 47.2 BPA to 47.5 BPA.

Both FBN soybean and corn yield updates will be available to FBN members on a consistent basis throughout the 2019/20 growing season.

Absent extreme weather events, national soybean yield objectives continue to stabilize. 

Compared with the previous model run conducted August 28, the latest FBN model output shows that the estimated yield for most states continues to stabilize. This trend toward yield stabilization has been assisted by what we consider to be almost ideal weather conditions. The continued absence of extreme temperatures or precipitation events continues to be beneficial for the late-season crop development. At FBN, we believe that the lack of extreme weather values throughout August have helped mitigate the yield related penalties that were evident in late-July time period. 

This week, the FBN soybean yield model emphasizes the statistical relevance of planting delays, crop condition score and the vegetation health index as observed through satellite imagery. Given the yield model structure used by FBN, we believe that our peak estimates are being achieved. This week, the results of the FBN model run shows the potential for yield improvements in most of the states in the ECB and WCB.

While the yield potential in almost all key producing states in the WCB and ECB continue to exhibit below trend tendencies, stabilization of the crop and the reduction of yield-related penalties remains an encouraging development. We believe that the vegetation health index is a positive for the late planted soy crop, and the observed “greenness” is an indicator that the plant is still adding vegetative mass to the pods. Absent an early frost, we believe that the soy crop will continue to stabilize, which can be supportive of yield potential. 

Conclusion

Continuous stabilization of the U.S. soybean yield potential is an encouraging development for a historically late start to the 2019 crop year. The lack of extreme weather events remains a positive for yield objectives, which has helped increase the national yield objective by 0.3 BPA to 47.5 BPA. While the soy plant is continuing to add biomass and is stabilizing, we believe that the FBN yield model structure is reaching peak predictiveness. The next yield model that FBN will offer for both corn and soybeans will be at the end of September.

Want access to more insights like this?

This article is excerpted from our Market Intelligence newsletter, delivered weekly toFBNMarket Advisory members. WithFBNMarket Advisory, you'll receive trulypersonalizedtools and reports to support your grain marketing efforts. Get access to market news, straightforward marketing recommendations, basis trend insights and weather reports—all relevant to your operation and geographic location.

Copyright © 2019 FBN BR LLC. All rights Reserved. FBN Market Intelligence is distributed by FBN BR LLC and is only available where FBN BR LLC is licensed. Contact877-472-4607for more information. For the purposes of quality assurance and compliance, phone calls to and from FBN BR LLC may be recorded.

We do not guarantee customers will receive specific benefits or value from participating in FBN Crop Marketing; results will vary. The data in this newsletter is being supplied as a courtesy by FBN BR LLC. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by FBN BR LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. FBN BR LLC does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This newsletter contains information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by FBN BR LLC. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Disclaimer: Futures and Option trading involves substantial risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Trading should only be done with true risk capital. Past performance, either actual or hypothetical, is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Walter Kunisch Jr.

Sep 17, 2019