Author

Rejeana Gvillo

Rejeana Gvillo

Rejeana is FBN's Senior Commodity Analyst.


May 23, 2022

by Rejeana Gvillo

Twenty cars carrying around 80 crop scouts left Manhattan, KS early Tuesday morning (May 17)  to fan out across the state and sample wheat yields. This year, wheat yields in Kansas are a big unknown as divergent weather has created yield question marks. In the Northeast part of the state, growing conditions have been mostly favorable hovering around normal for this time of year. But, as you move west and the south, drought and heat have taken their toll, cutting into yield prospects.  Last week USDA released their May forecast for winter wheat yields and pegged the Kansas state yield at 39 bushels per acre, off sharply from last year’s reading of 52 bushels. The estimated yield from the tour came in at 39.7 bushels per acre versus the average from last year at 47.4 bushels.  Production is seen at 261 million bushels, implying USDA’s harvested area total is viewed as too optimistic by the tour. On this year’s tour, Rejeana Gvillo, ’s Senior Economist, was on the road participating in the tour and giving first hand perspectives from her route. Here are some of her comments and observations. The western half of the state is in need of moisture. Having been on the tour previously, this was the first time I did not get damp when walking into a field before lunch.  It was so dry and hot, dew was nonexistent until we were in the Wichita area. There were many (what I would call) aborted (solid white) wheat heads from a combination of freeze damage and/or lack of moisture. There are limited pest/disease issues because it is so dry. Expectations for an above-average protein crop are present. The bulk of the crop was flowering or in the milk stage thus rain in the coming week or two could help and definitely maintain the crop - but would not substantially alter my views on the overall health of the KS wheat crop. Harvest is 2-6 weeks off, depending on the area. In several western/southern fields, stalks are so short that a combine header won’t be able to cut the wheat. My opinion is that USDA’s harvested area expectation is too large. Therefore I expect harvested area to come in lower in the June Acreage report. Winter wheat crop tour - FBN Economist stops Key findings and insights Day 1 Day 1 should have been a pretty decent crop based on USDA’s crop conditions showing the crop rating that was mostly fair. Of the 13 stops, only one stop showed a field level yield that was above last year’s county yield. Freeze damage was observed on stop 5, and yield in that field was off 20 bushels from the county average in 2021. As the route headed West across the northern reaches of the state yields definitely got lower, reflecting the challenging growing season. Read more about the key findings from Day 1. Day 2 Day 2’s scouting tour headed into the worst areas for yield and the findings confirmed how bad it is. Yields fell dramatically as the tour hit the SW corner of KS. But as the tour reached the south central region of the state, yield conditions began to improve.     Read more about the key findings from Day 2. Day 3 Day 3 offered no surprises.  As the tour headed north of Wichita towards Manhattan, but with only a few miles between the cities, Rejeana made just two stops to wrap up the final day of the tour.  Wheat tour coming up short Click here to enlarge the image. Stop 26 - Mulvane KS Stop 27 - Mulvane KS


May 20, 2022

by Rejeana Gvillo

Rejeana Gvillo, Senior Economist at  , is on the road in Kansas with the Wheat Council Tour. Follow her posts to get firsthand perspectives from her route. Here are the key findings and insights from Day 2’s route. Read about Day 1's Tour Results here. Key findings and insights Day 2’s scouting tour by Economist Rejeana Gvillo headed into the worst areas for yield and the findings confirmed how bad it is. Yields fell dramatically as the tour hit the SW corner of KS. But as the tour reached the south central region of the state, yield conditions began to improve.  Winter wheat crop tour - FBN Economist stops Stop 14 - Tribune KS Stop 15 - Richland KS Stop 16 - Johnson City KS Stop 17 - Stano KS Stop 18 - Sublette KS Stop 19 - Kismet KS Stop 20 - Meade Center KS Stop 21 - Sitka KS Stop 22 - Coldwater KS Stop 23 - Sharon KS Stop 24 - Crystal Springs KS Stop 25 - Suppesville KS Wheat tour coming up short Click here to enlarge the image. What it means for the farmer Kansas farmers are seeing wildly variable growing conditions this season, and day 2 of the tour saw the impact on yields. Widespread losses are expected in the SW stretches of the state, while central and Eastern regions are normal, to perhaps even a bit above normal. With one day left on the tour, it seems likely that USDA’s 39 bushel mark for KS in their May estimate is about where the KS Wheat Tour will land. The overall tour average for day 1 was 39.5 and day 2 was 37.


May 18, 2022

by Rejeana Gvillo

Rejeana Gvillo, Senior Economist at , is on the road in Kansas with the Wheat Council Tour. Follow her posts to get firsthand perspectives from her route. Twenty cars carrying 80 crop scouts left Manhattan, KS early Tuesday morning ready to fan out across the state and sample wheat yields. This year, wheat yields in Kansas are a big unknown as divergent weather has created big yield question marks. In the Northeast part of the state growing conditions have been mostly favorable hovering around normal for this time of year. As you move more to the Southwest corner of the state, drought and heat have taken their toll and likely cut deeply into yields.  Last week, USDA released their May forecast for winter wheat yields, and pegged the Kansas state yield at 39 bushels per acre, off sharply from last year’s reading of 52 bushels. With the world grappling with the loss of Ukraine and Russian wheat from fully reaching international buyers, any more drawdown in the largest US wheat state could be a further catalyst for record-high wheat prices. Wednesday, May 18 will be conducting our own Virtual Wheat Yield poll with text polling happening in CO, KS, NE, OK, and TX! Look for the results to be released soon in conjunction with the final numbers from the Wheat tour. Key findings and insights Day 1 should have been a pretty decent crop based on USDA’s crop conditions showing the crop rating that was mostly fair. Of the 13 stops, only one stop showed a field level yield that was above last year’s county yield. Freeze damage was observed on stop 5, and yield in that field was off 20 bushels from the county average in 2021. As the route headed West across the northern reaches of the state yields definitely got lower, reflecting the challenging growing season. Winter wheat crop tour - FBN Economist stops Stop 1 - Chapman KS Stop 2 - Salina KS Stop 3 - Minneapolis KS Stop 4 - Delphos Stop 5 - Concordia KS Stop 6 - Soloman Rapids KS Stop 7 - Downs KS Stop 8 - Woodston KS Stop 9 - Webster Park KS Stop 10 - Hill City KS Stop 11 - Morland KS Stop 12 - Studley KS Stop 13 - Menlo KS What it means for the farmer While this is only one route from day 1, there was little here to suggest yields are better than what USDA pegged last week from their objective survey.


May 04, 2022

by Rejeana Gvillo

With planting progress for the US lagging the average for a handful of crops, lots of questions about prevent plant and the risk around those totals are surfacing. Already the world is facing supply uncertainty, and the threat of losing additional ground for corn production specifically heightens concerns. To answer whether we should be concerned about prevent plant now, we looked at historical levels of planting progress and the relationship to prevent plant totals, then zoomed in on North Dakota (ND) as risks there are mounting.   Digging into the data We gathered data from two key sources to answer the question: is it too early to be concerned about prevent plant?   Weekly Crop Progress reports - these are issued by USDA on Mondays (as of the prior Sunday) during the key weeks of the growing season for the US - usually April-October or so, depending on the year. FSA crop acreage data - these data sets are released monthly, usually from August - January.  The data included progressive totals of prevent plant, failed, planted, and volunteer acres with the final report usually released in January. Crop progress to date vs history - Focus on US corn As of April 24, the US corn crop was 7% planted versus the average of 15%.  Going back to 1980 and looking at the same week across time, here are some stats. Bolded years are record-yielding years, green years represent record-production years. So, at the national level, the current planting pace to date is not worrisome. We have had several years of progress that have run behind this year’s to date pace that ended up being records (2009, 2013, 2014).  Historical vs April 24 US corn planting progress stats Back to 1980 Minimum progress 2% (1984, 1983) Maximum progress 50% (2010) Median progress 9% (including 2011, 2015) Average progress 11%  (2007) Years below 7% 14 (including 2008, , 2013, , 2018, 2019) Years above 7% 24 Years at 7% 5 (1981, 1995, 1997, 2020, 2022) Does North Dakota pose risks? At a national level this year’s corn planting pace to date does not seem too threatening. But we decided to specifically zoom in on North Dakota. We did that for a couple of reasons. First, ND has led the US in prevent plant acres of major crops in five of the last 15 years making it highly prone to planting challenges.  And this year’s planting season has not started out well as record cold temperatures for this time of year, combined with several big snow events, have kept farmers on the sidelines. While this time of year is generally not the height of planting in ND, the weather in April along with the forecast through the first week in May suggest ND could face an uphill challenge getting the corn crop in the ground over the next 30 days. Precip concerns Over the 2nd half of April, corn growing regions in North Dakota got nearly 4 inches of moisture from several feet of snow fall. That is the highest two-week total for this time of year with the next highest being 1986 at 3 inches and 0.8 inches on average. Unfortunately for producers, there is ample moisture in the near-term forecast as well which stretches into the first week of May as of this writing.  Temp concerns On top of all the moisture, temperatures have been record low for this time of year. The average daytime high for the 2nd half of April is projected to be a brisk 41 degrees, a full 17 degrees below average at this time of the season. The most recent year that was close was 2013, when the last half of April temperatures were 44 degrees. That was a year when North Dakota had significant corn prevent plant, with 13% of the state’s corn acreage not planted. Here again, weather models are forecasting continued cold to persist into the first week of May.  We still have time Still focusing on ND, we looked at the day of the year (DOY) that ND historically has 10% of the crop planted, 20% planted, 30% etc. We then tested those interpolated values with prevent plant totals for each year.  The DOY we need to keep an eye on is around 145 or May 25. If the state has 60% or less of intended corn in the ground by then, the risk of having prevent plant acres increases significantly.  Essentially, in the coming 28 days, ND corn planting progress needs to be at that threshold or more to alleviate concerns about not getting the whole corn crop in the ground. What it means for the farmer The world is already on edge about price risk in the grain and oilseed complex. US farmers surprised the market in March with lower than expected corn intentions for the coming growing season. Any hint of further cuts in acreage due to Mother Nature’s fickle ways could add more fuel to the price outlook. While still time to see a change in weather to have beneficial impacts in planting pace, it will require a significant warm and dry trend in the Upper Midwest to give farmers a shot ahead of the late May deadline. 


Apr 12, 2022

by Rejeana Gvillo

Fertilizer prices have increased due to a multitude of factors and now even more uncertainty is present in the market with sanctions hitting Russia left and right.  This week, we dug into the US fertilizer situation for nitrogen (N), phosphate (P), and potash (K).  The US Geological Survey (USGS) provides a summary on mineral commodities, which has excellent details and can be found . Potash, nitrogen, and phosphate: Potash most at risk for us Potash The US relies heavily on potash imports but much less so for nitrogen (ammonia) and phosphate. The world’s largest producer of potash happens to be our neighbor to the north. In 2021, the US imported 93% of its potash needs with imports around 7 MMT and Canada accounting for 5.25 MMT of that total. Russia and Belarus made up another 1.3 MMT and even though the US has sanctions on Belarus (that began in August), imports still trickled in. However, this was a big jump in imports, year over year. Perhaps buyers hedged bets and brought in extra tonnage to get through the start of 2022. Plus, another US mine should be in production in 2022 with capacity at 650,000 tonnes per year. But in the midst of the war, Russia and Belarus found themselves alienated from world markets and that likely will have widespread impacts on fertilizer trade. While Russian fertilizer is not directly being sanctioned, Russia has announced intentions to ban fertilizer exports with restrictions already in place for nitrogen-containing fertilizers. Assuming the US would not import any potash from Russia and Belarus, then an extra 1 MMT to 2 MMT of potash would need to be sourced to keep application rates the same. For nitrogen and phosphorus, the US produces significant volumes of both, relying less so on imports and nearly none being sourced from Russia or Belarus.    Nitrogen (Ammonia) In 2021, the US imported 2.2 MMT of nitrogen or 12% of actual consumption needs. The top suppliers of US nitrogen imports were Trinidad and Tobago at 63% and Canada at 34%. But,  35 plants across the US produced 14 MMT of nitrogen, which represented about 84% of capacity. And of that 14 MMT, 88% of that was used for fertilizer. No capacity increases have been announced for the US in 2022, but we could see more utilization of current capacity. China is the world’s largest producer of nitrogen followed by Russia and the US.  Hence, Russia’s banning of nitrogen-based fertilizer products has hit the world rather hard. India is another top producer of nitrogen. Phosphate rock LIke nitrogen, the US produces much more phosphate rock than it imports. Of the 22 MMT the US produced in 2021, more than 95% went to ammonium phosphate fertilizers and animal feed supplements. The US imported about 13% of its consumption needs in 2021 with 87% of that coming from Peru. DAP production decreased in 2021 thanks to Hurricane Ida, which damaged facilities in Louisiana. China, Morocco, and the US are the top producers of phosphate rock. USDA has data on historical fertilizer application rates. Unfortunately, the latest data are through 2018 and no data are available for the 2007/08 year, when fertilizer prices sharply increased. But, applying 2018’s application rates to acreage totals from 2018 forward, we get the following outcomes, which underscores the need to import around 7 MMT of potash for 2022. High prices impacted US producers’ behavior Per ’s January poll on fertilizer decisions, about two-thirds of US farmers planned to buy less or explore other options, such as manure, and the effect was more apparent in states that are less corn-centric. This was further underscored by USDA’s confirmation that corn acres are planned to be lower this year versus last. A further take away is that if the US producer altered plans, other countries could be as well. Brazil caught in the headwinds While the US is in a rather secure position for most fertilizer supplies, Brazil is not. Brazil relies heavily on imports of all three fertilizer products with Russia a significant contributor. This has notable implications for 2022’s plantings in Brazil, which will start late this calendar year. Brazil has voiced its goal to increase fertilizer production, but it is unlikely that the country will be able to come anywhere close to meeting domestic needs within a year, much less a few months. Import reliance for key fertilizers & key origins Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Brazil 95%  Russia 21% China 20% 75%  Morocco 38% Russia 15% 91%  Canada 32% Russia 26% U.S. 12%  Trinidad 65% Canada 30% 9%  Peru 85% Morocco 15% 93%  Canada 83% Russia 6% Source: US: USGS Mineral Commodity Summary, Brazil: Farmdoc What it means for the farmer Even though the US produces a lot of its fertilizer, the rising costs of energy along with global supply issues is keeping fertilizer prices at high levels. This has contributed to the pullback in corn acreage in the US and has farmers changing their fertilizer plans for the planting season. High prices could have further implications for fertilizer use in other countries, especially countries that rely heavily on Russia and China for their needs.


Feb 23, 2022

by Rejeana Gvillo

Soybean futures have been rallying for weeks as weather concerns in Brazil have yet to ease. In fact, concerns have heightened with harvest progress suggesting that even central states could be facing yield cuts. Rewind a couple of months ago and Brazil was set to have a record bean harvest by far with Mato Grosso the leader. Now, too much moisture for that state and a lack of moisture for southern states has us leaning towards a production total closer to 118 MMT.   To put that into perspective, in 2018/19 (planted in late 2018, harvested in early 2019), Brazil harvested 119.7 MMT of soybeans. So we have to rewind a few years to get a crop that is sub-120 MMT. A couple of months ago, Conab was expecting a record crop at just under 143 MMT. The agency most recently downgraded its production forecast to 125.5 MMT. But our bias is that final production may be even lighter.   What is driving our outlook lower? A couple of things are pushing us to cut production even more. First, harvest progress in Mato Grosso is suggesting that its crop is not as healthy as Conab is projecting. Contacts in Brazil are stating that high humidity and too much moisture caused plant damage, particularly on the lower pods. Moving further south into Parana, and plant growth is limited, many fields are yellow and stunted, and some fields are simply dried out - as shown in the following pictures. Source: - Parana, Brazil, February 2022 Source: - Parana, Brazil, February 2022 We will dig more into balance sheet implications in forthcoming analysis, but a crop in the 120 MMT range suggests Brazil’s exports could be closer to 75-80 MMT versus USDA’s current forecast at 90.5 MMT. And that has positive implications for US export prospects into 2022/23.  In fact, China reportedly has canceled several cargoes of Brazil beans - these cancellations reportedly are tied to weakening crush margins in China but also higher prices in Brazil.      What it means for the farmer Old-crop futures are likely to gain in the coming months, which is a key reason as to why we lifted the short side of the call option earlier this week. US acreage prospects for 2022 may keep the upside for new-crop values limited for now, but at this juncture, the odds of China having to source more beans from locations outside Brazil are high.


Nov 02, 2020

by Rejeana Gvillo

Canola crush hit a new record for September, coming in at 785,725 tonnes. That was down from August but above our expectations for the month by a few thousand tonnes. Crush remains strong, with demand for meal and oil robust. With August and September crush combined, we are running slightly ahead of last year’s volume for the same time period. Seasonally, we see a boost in crush volume in October, thanks in part to fresh supplies. The same is expected this crop year.   The daily crush rate slipped versus August but remained near recent levels. The daily rate for September was the third highest on record but was lower than September 2019 and 2018. We feel this is partially tied to tighter supplies ahead of new-crop harvest but also some potential shutdowns given the large crush we saw in August. Overall, the volume crushed per day is not alarming, and we do feel that three consecutive months of slightly lower daily volumes suggests that the crush industry is heading towards lower levels. Margins have been trending higher for several months since hitting a calendar-year low this late winter/early spring. Margins have been pushing higher, thanks partially to higher values for soybean meal and oil, which influences the canola market. On top of that, export demand is strong for canola meal as well. But the higher margins do not necessarily mean we will see higher crush volumes. There is no statistically significant relationship between higher margin levels and higher crush volumes using the data available (i.e., crush levels on a monthly basis). But we can say the industry appears to be in a period of higher-than-average margins, which is a positive. What are the balance sheet implications? As stated previously, September crush came in slightly higher than our expectations. That means that without changing the volume expected for the total year, the forecasts for other months had to be reduced to absorb the larger-than-expected September volume. At this juncture, we see crop year crush around 10 million tonnes. Last year, we had a final crush level of 10.1 million tonnes. The problem for this year is that we anticipate that a lack of supplies could limit crush volumes.   Another strong month of crush is a positive for the canola balance sheet. We are moving stocks tighter, which is a plus from a pricing perspective. The risk to the canola outlook is a much larger soybean crop than expected out of Brazil/Argentina. We have eased off recent highs, but the situation for canola alone points to this market remaining supported. However, new highs may be hard to come by as planting progresses in South America with expectations that acres will be higher. Want access to more insights like this? This article is excerpted from our Market Intelligence newsletter, delivered weekly to  FBN® Market Advisory members in Canada. With Market Advisory, you'll receive truly tools and reports to support your grain marketing efforts. Get access to market news, straightforward marketing recommendations, basis trend insights and weather reports—all relevant to your operation and geographic location.


Oct 26, 2020

by Rejeana Gvillo

Canola futures have taken off thanks to fundamentals. The global canola supply situation is snug, Canada’s balance sheet is tightening, and demand is solid for oilseeds in general. Nearby canola futures are trading at levels not seen in a couple of years thanks to the above-mentioned factors with FBN® leaning towards China likely being a larger buyer this year than last. This week, we refreshed a previous study looking at canola carry at harvest time across provinces. The incentive to carry has actually declined over this week. Nearby demand is strong. This is what we found with the model update: There is an incentive to carry canola into February for Alberta and Manitoba, and that incentive is above the average for those provinces.  For Saskatchewan, the carry is in line with the average, indicating that cash prices signal canola is needed now rather than later. There is no incentive to carry right now in Alberta, underscoring strong demand. For all three provinces, the carry incentive drops from February to March, but that could be partially tied to the contract roll from the March futures contract to the May futures contract. May futures are trading at a discount to March futures right now.   The incentive to carry declined this week for all three provinces. The cash side of the market is strong. While the average canola basis across the three provinces is below last year and is weak relative to several previous years, cash values as a whole are well above last year. In fact, cash levels are trending higher than in recent years despite basis being under pressure. We lean towards the weakness in basis being related to strength in futures and elevators/processors squeezing basis lower since the futures market is strong. The fundamental situation for canola is strong. Be sure to take advantage of the current strength in the market and catch up to ’s recommendation targets. But, the canola balance sheet is tight. Want access to more insights like this? This article is excerpted from our Market Intelligence newsletter, delivered weekly to  FBN® Market Advisory members in Canada. With Market Advisory, you'll receive truly tools and reports to support your grain marketing efforts. Get access to market news, straightforward marketing recommendations, basis trend insights and weather reports—all relevant to your operation and geographic location.


Oct 19, 2020

by Rejeana Gvillo

This week, we examined the flaxseed market. The main driver of our interest is that cash prices have been strengthening overall for months despite harvest going on now and production being up versus 2019. Relative to other crops in Canada, the flaxseed market is small. Average flax prices across Canada were on the rise in March then fell sharply in May. After flatlining for a while, prices are on the rise again despite fresh supplies as harvest progresses. Flaxseed was 98 percent harvested in Saskatchewan and 86 percent in Manitoba this week. Exports start off strong for the crop year Exports make up a notable portion of the balance sheet. As a percentage of production, exports have averaged 87 percent over the past decade. The top takers are China, the U.S. and Belgium. Mexico takes a minor amount of flaxseed as well. Dating back to 2014, Canada has exported flaxseed to these four countries only. The most exported in one crop year was 920,000 tonnes. But, monthly and weekly export data do not align with what is reported as final export data. Typically we see larger final volumes than what we see in the monthly and weekly data. We started off the 2020 export season strong, but we flatlined in September. Seasonally, we see a jump in exports from November to January.   Balance sheet details Flaxseed production is forecast at 21.7 million bushels per Statistics Canada’s latest report, which is up from last year’s crop at 19.1 million and would be the largest harvest since the 2017 crop as production has been declining since 2015. Saskatchewan produces about 75 percent of the Canadian crop. Production is forecast to be up marginally versus last year, but stocks are forecast to continue to remain light versus a few years ago. We assume that exports will exceed last year’s volume based on strong consumer demand as well as strong feed demand.  The flaxseed balance sheet is expected to remain tight this year despite a marginally larger crop, partially because stocks were snug heading into the crop year. But, FBN® leans towards COVID-19 being a supportive element to the flaxseed industry overall, with domestic feed demand having a strong finish in the April-July quarter. We do not see substantial weakness overall throughout the crop year for flaxseed prices but encourage producers to take advantage of the current strength in the market and move to 75 percent sold as per the latest recommendation. Want access to more insights like this? This article is excerpted from our Market Intelligence newsletter, delivered weekly to  FBN® Market Advisory members in Canada. With Market Advisory, you'll receive truly tools and reports to support your grain marketing efforts. Get access to market news, straightforward marketing recommendations, basis trend insights and weather reports—all relevant to your operation and geographic location. FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. does not guarantee any specific benefits or value from participating in FBN Crop Marketing; results will vary. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. FBN Crop Marketing Canada offerings involve risks, including the risk that market conditions deteriorate, resulting in contract participants receiving lower prices for their grain than had they not participated in the FBN offering.  Copyright © 2015 - 2020 FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. All rights reserved. The sprout logo, "Farmers Business Network," "FBN," and "Farmers First '' are registered service marks of Farmer's Business Network, Inc. and are used with permission. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. FBN Crop Marketing Services are offered by FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. and are available only in provinces where Farmer's Business Network Canada, Inc. is licensed. FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. Box 5607, High River, AB T1V 1M4, Canada


Oct 12, 2020

by Rejeana Gvillo

The soybean complex has been gaining strength, which is helping lift canola futures that were already in a supportive environment thanks to the tightening stocks situation. This week, we wanted to discuss some of the elements that are adding support to soybeans and the implications for canola futures. USDA’s September 1 stocks total shocked the market, implying that use during June-August was strong — thanks to strong exports and crush during that period. New-crop supplies have steadily been reduced as well on trims to yield throughout the season. USDA’s report on Friday further confirmed tightening supplies on lower acreage and production for the US as well as higher exports resulting in ending stocks being forecast at 290 million bushels. While the country is still dealing with African swine fever, the hog herd is recovering, which is resulting in increased demand for soybean meal versus this time last year. Plus, China boosted its other animal herds during the pandemic, and these herds also still need meal. While imports are around 97 million tonnes for 2019/20, we expect a larger volume for 2020/21. On top of that, some exporting countries also increased herd sizes to meet Chinese pork import demand, with feed demand for those herds strong as well. Crush margins for China are strong, which is also not discouraging imports of soybeans. Brazil’s seeding season is here, and the top-two producing states need moisture. Both states are running behind normal seeding averages, with Parana notably behind. It is still a bit too early to get excited about yield losses, and producers there can make significant progress in a short time. But, what is being talked about is that the later the Brazilian crop, the longer other exporters have an opportunity to export in this marketing year. Plus, this further opens the window for corn exports with Brazil’s main corn crop following its soybean harvest. The weather forecast calls for some moisture in the near term, but the moisture situation remains less than ideal for now. Brazil also could have been too aggressive on selling its 2020 harvest. Brazil is importing larger volumes of soybeans earlier in the year versus recent history. Altogether, looks for higher soybean prices in the coming weeks, which means that canola futures could be further supported. Additional selling opportunities are expected to be present in the coming weeks. With China coming off holiday this week and the fundamentals discussed above, we look for additional strength in the soybean futures market. Want access to more insights like this? This article is excerpted from our Market Intelligence newsletter, delivered weekly to Market Advisory members in Canada. With Market Advisory, you'll receive truly tools and reports to support your grain marketing efforts. Get access to market news, straightforward marketing recommendations, basis trend insights and weather reports—all relevant to your operation and geographic location. FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. does not guarantee any specific benefits or value from participating in FBN Crop Marketing; results will vary. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. FBN Crop Marketing Canada offerings involve risks, including the risk that market conditions deteriorate, resulting in contract participants receiving lower prices for their grain than had they not participated in the FBN offering.  Copyright © 2015 - 2020 FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. All rights reserved. The sprout logo, "Farmers Business Network," "FBN," and "Farmers First '' are registered service marks of Farmer's Business Network, Inc. and are used with permission. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. FBN Crop Marketing Services are offered by FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. and are available only in provinces where Farmer's Business Network Canada, Inc. is licensed. FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. Box 5607, High River, AB T1V 1M4, Canada