Wrapping Up 2019/20 and Looking to 2020/21

Wrapping Up 2019/20 and Looking to 2020/21

Rejeana Gvillo

Sep 08, 2020

July exports by destination were released this week, and July 31 stocks were also published. That wrapped up the data needed to complete the balance sheets for the 2019/20 marketing year for most crops. No major surprises were in the monthly export or ending stocks data sets.    

Export season wraps up with a strong finish

Wheat exports finished strongly, nearly closing the gap between this and last year. Most commodity export programs outpaced last year, with soybeans and wheat being the exceptions. And that was during a year when the railroad industry faced several challenges. The weaker dollar has helped exports, but generally demand was strong. That demand was mainly from non-China countries, with China’s imports from Canada down for barley, canola, flax, soybeans and wheat, year over year. The weaker purchasing of soybeans from China did hamper that export program, whereas China’s strong pea demand boosted that export total. Most export totals fell near expectations with no major surprises. 

2019/20 ending stocks mostly as expected

The July 31 stocks report had few surprises based on our expectations. Year over year, several commodities had reductions in stocks. Barley, oats and non-durum wheat stocks were higher versus a year ago, but canola, lentils, durum and pea stocks all fell. The updated totals did not lead to any significant changes to our pricing outlooks for crops. 

Next year’s stocks outlook

For the 2020/21 crop year, we are currently expecting the following directional changes to stocks. We will provide more details about the balance sheet and price expectations in the following weeks.

FBN's take on what this means for the farmer

While we had a solid finish to the 2019/20 crop year, we are positioned to generally expand supplies and stocks for most crops for 2020/21. This is one of the key reasons we are not overly optimistic about prices for several commodities.

Want access to more insights like this?

This article is excerpted from our Market Intelligence newsletter, delivered weekly toFBN Market Advisory members in Canada. With FBN Market Advisory, you'll receive truly personalized tools and reports to support your grain marketing efforts. Get access to market news, straightforward marketing recommendations, basis trend insights and weather reports—all relevant to your operation and geographic location.

FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. does not guarantee any specific benefits or value from participating in FBN Crop Marketing; results will vary. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. FBN Crop Marketing Canada offerings involve risks, including the risk that market conditions deteriorate, resulting in contract participants receiving lower prices for their grain than had they not participated in the FBN offering. 

Copyright © 2015 - 2020 FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. All rights reserved. The sprout logo, "Farmers Business Network," "FBN," and "Farmers First '' are registered service marks of Farmer's Business Network, Inc. and are used with permission. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. FBN Crop Marketing Services are offered by FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. and are available only in provinces where Farmer's Business Network Canada, Inc. is licensed. FBN Crop Marketing Canada, Inc. Box 5607, High River, AB T1V 1M4, Canada.

Rejeana Gvillo

Sep 08, 2020