(edited) • Marketing
FBN Plantings Report!
We released the 2023 Planting Intentions Report (https://www.fbn.com/reports/newest) which is based on 2,000 FBN farmer surveys across 8 principle crops. USDA will release their own Planting Intentions survey on Friday, Mar 31 @ 11 am CDT. A big thank you to all the FBN farmers that responded!
The key findings from the report are:
- U.S. corn plantings are pegged at 92.5 million acres, up from 88.6 in 2022 and USDA's February forecast of 91.0.
- U.S. soy plantings came in at 84.5 million acres, a 3 million acre drop from last year and the USDA's February forecast.
For a 3rd year in a row, we find our estimates wildly different from the 'experts' who continue to paint the numbers USDA put out in February, which were not based on a survey but instead based on economist guesstimates.
Predicting crop acreage is a task that no firm (or AI model) has been able to successfully solve for. It is this reason that the Mar 31 USDA report is hands-down the most volatile day of the year in grain markets. On that day, $1 Billion dollars is made or lost in the corn market alone. That's the same amount that is collectively wagered on the Super Bowl!
Since our start at acreage prediction, FBN has the best track record in predicting USDA corn & soy acreage as compared to 26 other 'experts' surveyed by Reuters. Indeed, the 2nd best is a distant 30% away from FBN.
Here's the direct link:
You can find it under Analyze->Reports
All I could see was some guy looking at the back of a planter!! Where is this FBN planting intentions?
all depends on the weather