Author

Nicole Tonak

Nicole Tonak is your Market Advisor Regional Representative serving members in parts of the Upper Midwest through the Pacific Northwest - Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington and Wyoming.


Jul 29, 2022

by Nicole Tonak

July 29 update Grain markets had a nice finish to July month end, recovering losses built into the markets earlier in the month. As it has been discussed previously, weather markets are very unpredictable and that’s what we saw the last couple weeks. Going forward, the weather forecast for the first 10 days of August shows the heat dome coming back and bringing above normal temperatures with little/no rain for Central IL, most of IA, Southern MN and into SD. This could be critical especially in the Dakotas/parts of MN as the corn has moved into the pollination stage. Agronomists consider 86° the optimum temperature for corn and soybean growth. Nicole Tonak is an FBN Market Advisor Regional Representative serving members in parts of the Upper Midwest through the Pacific Northwest - Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington and Wyoming. Click here to download Nicole’s virtual business card. Temperatures above 86° have the potential to reduce yields, and forecasts are calling for triple digits over the next week. Therefore, I am questioning if we will be able to sustain current yield forecasts of 170 on corn and 50 for beans. I want to voice a note of caution here though in chasing this rally. If (...when?) rain enters the forecast, we should expect a sharp correction from these levels we have appreciated. Export demand has been weak and could leave longs exposed to a significant use reduction in the August WASDE. The first shipment of grain from the Ukrainian Black Sea Port was set to take place at the end of July. A couple things to note here are vessels already loaded will be first to move. These vessels have been loaded and sitting in the port for some time and there is question as to grain quality once exported. Second issue is the discussion as to where the “safe channel” will be. Finding a safe passage is concerning as they will not be de-mining passage to/from the ports as it was thought to be too time consuming, potentially taking up to 4 months to do it properly. On the “Home Front,” corn seems to have made considerable gains from the late plant and those areas that have caught some very timely rains are looking pretty good. Soybeans are still behind but hanging in there. The next couple of weeks will tell a story of how well these row crops can sustain with little moisture to be had. Small grain harvest has started in a few areas of the region and will be going full force shortly. I do not have any local yield or protein data yet to share, but I would love to hear from you and how things are going on your farm. To ask a question or shoot me a message/picture of your harvest progress, use the above link to view my contact information. You can also reach me at 605-221-8296. Below are recent soybean and corn yields estimates from FBN®. Upcoming events Check out these upcoming events in our region.  For more details click here. July 21 Update In the Upper Midwest, compared to corn and beans the wheat crop is doing well during this warm growing season; and seems to be on track for the most part, maybe a little behind, but looking good. Corn is improving, aside from a few pockets in SE South Dakota/SE North Dakota and parts of MN that have missed out on timely rains. Those areas in MN are starting to see the corn roll and will need moisture soon. Soybeans are struggling the most and are slow to catch up. Although plants are small, the overall bean crop will be about average as things look today.Western MT caught a rain this past weekend, helping crop production there. The moisture was a welcome addition and should help achieve near average yields for the area. Switching gears to Feed, the Alfalfa crop looks good. Second cuttings are underway or done, and if we are blessed with timely rain over the next 30 days, we could see third ,maybe even 4th, cuttings in prime areas yet this season. Another point worth mentioning is that ditch cutting is underway. This grass cutting is pushing the grasshoppers into fields, in the more drought-stricken pockets throughout the Region. Talking with fellow colleagues on FBN Direct, this is worth mentioning and reminding producers to be checking fields for possible insect damage. As an FBN Market Advisor/Broker, when working with our customers, we not only discuss the commodities market but also the price volatility in the livestock markets, especially cattle. In addition to, or instead of using futures and options, FBN can work with livestock growers to protect prices using the Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) policy. This is a federally subsidized insurance program used to lock in a floor price for your cattle and protect against a price decline in the marketplace. Producers need flexibility while being proactive in managing their price risk and LRP offers that opportunity. If you would like to learn more about this product and how to manage your risk, contact your local market advisor who can get you in touch with one of our experienced FBN Crop insurance agents. Hit and miss rains have led to varying drought indications throughout the country. It's no surprise crop health throughout the region is varying so much. The below NASA Grace map provides a great visual of soil moisture inconsistencies throughout the country (white indicated normal soil moistures levels during this time of the year with colors on the red spectrum indicating drought level and blue spectrum indicating elevated soil moisture levels). Source: NASA , https://nasagrace.unl.edu/   FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory - NFA ID: 0508695 Disclaimer: The views and opinions are solely those of the author as of the date of publication, are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions, will not be updated or supplemented after the date hereof and may not necessarily come to pass. The views and opinions expressed herein do not reflect those of all personnel at FBN BR LLC (FBN) or the views of the Farmer's Business Network Inc. as a whole. FBN makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees as to this content. Any charts and graphs provided are for illustrative purposes only. Any performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Commodity trading, including futures, hedging and speculating, involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by FBN BR LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. The information and data provided comes from sources believed to be reliable but FBN BR LLC does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.  We are an Equal Opportunity Provider. FBN Crop Insurance services are offered by FBN Insurance LLC (dba FBN Insurance Solutions Services LLC in Texas, and FBN Insurance Solutions LLC in California and Michigan) and are only available where FBN Insurance LLC is licensed. FBN membership is not required to purchase through FBN Insurance LLC, but certain features are only available to FBN members. FBN Crop Insurance is currently offered in all U.S. states except MA and the District of Columbia. Copyright © 2014-2022 Farmer's Business Network, Inc. The sprout logo, "Farmers Business Network," "FBN," and "Farmers First" are registered trademarks of Farmer's Business Network, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.


Article Grain Marketing

July 2022 Market Briefing: Region 1

Jul 05, 2022

by Nicole Tonak

Upper Midwest/Dakotas have finally finished up with Spring planting. You, the producer, did a great job of getting as many acres as possible planted, under some tough conditions. Unfortunately, not all acres were planted, there are PP acres scattered throughout the region. Crop conditions As Spring planting progressed over the past few months, acre changes due to weather were inevitable. Spring Wheat planting was a struggle early on, and even though some acres were switched, ND was able to get most wheat acres planted. Higher input costs, along with grain markets, pushed some corn acres into beans throughout this region. In much of the northern region, even though seed was planted into soggy ground, and not under great conditions, things are drying out quickly. With the crop now emerged, it’s trying to catch up from the late planting dates, however, we are still behind. Early planted Wheat acres look good and are on track so far at this point. Corn and beans are for sure behind. Spraying has been underway, and with the slow growing to this point it looks like there could be additional spray costs ahead to keep things under control before canopy. The mid-June change to cooler temps has taken some stress off during these early growing days, although it looks like the heat will reappear in July. Moisture will be needed to compensate for any excessive heat that comes in the next 30 days. Recent market setbacks ahead of USDA’s June 30th acreage report did cause concern among some growers with uncertain yields projected throughout the upper Midwest. As advisors, we want you, the grower, to be comfortable with the sales you’ve made or additional sales yet to make.  With this yield uncertainty, I encourage you to watch for any changes +/- and adjust your percent sold accordingly to maintain accurate records ahead of harvest. If you have any questions regarding the markets or how to protect that risk going through the summer, I’d be happy to visit with you! Basis levels throughout the region are still strong. Most facilities/end users have rolled and are using new crop futures, making basis level adjustments to complete the cash prices for summer. As you look to summer cleanout, be mindful of road construction/detours and closures to ensure a seamless trip to the scales. Stay safe, Stay hydrated!  Enjoy your summer. Upcoming Events Check out these upcoming events in our region. For more details click here. Minnesota Honey Producers - St. Cloud, MN, July 6-8 Dakota Fest - Mitchell, SD,  August 16-18 R Calf Annual Convention - Deadwood, SD, August 18-20 FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory - NFA ID: 0508695 Disclaimer: The views and opinions are solely those of the author as of the date of publication, are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions, will not be updated or supplemented after the date hereof and may not necessarily come to pass. The views and opinions expressed herein do not reflect those of all personnel at FBN BR LLC (FBN) or the views of the Farmer's Business Network Inc. as a whole. FBN makes no representations, warranties, or guarantees as to this content. Any charts and graphs provided are for illustrative purposes only. Any performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Commodity trading, including futures, hedging and speculating, involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by FBN BR LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. The information and data provided comes from sources believed to be reliable but FBN BR LLC does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.  Copyright © 2014-2022 Farmer's Business Network, Inc. The sprout logo, "Farmers Business Network," "FBN," and "Farmers First" are registered trademarks of Farmer's Business Network, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.


May 31, 2022

by Nicole Tonak

Introducing Nicole Tonak - Market Advisor Regional Representative covering the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Region I started with FBN in 2019 as an outside Farm Market Advisor working for local producers helping to manage their grain marketing risk. Prior to FBN I honed my risk management skills by working for a brokerage company and  with Cargill as both a Contract Service Rep. and Farm Market Advisor.  I grew up in, and still reside in East/Central South Dakota. I enjoy working with producers, and learning about their farm business to  further understand and assist in marketing strategies for their operations. May Brief Cooler, wet weather through May has caused significant planting delays throughout the Upper Midwest, especially in the Dakotas. May 22nd US corn planting report was 72%, second slowest for the date in more than 25 years. North Dakota however came in at only 20%. As the Crop Insurance Deadline of May 25th for corn has passed, producers are contemplating the production risks of late planting, changing their acres, or filing for prevent plant. Spring Wheat acres, also in limbo as we close out May, are causing additional strain. If you have any questions as to what decision is best for your Farm Business, contact your crop insurance agent or market advisor. One last Storm system will move through the end of May, before June brings the area warm/dry weather. This will allow a few good planting days ahead of the June 10th Soybean deadline for crop insurance. Old/New crop Basis levels remain steady and currently better than average. If you'd like to talk about your farm business and how it's being impacted by market dynamics, you can call/text at 605.221.8296 . Or email me . FBN Market Advisory services is offered by FBN BR LLC - NFA ID: 0508695.   Disclaimer: Commodity trading, including futures, hedging and speculating, involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by FBN BR LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. FBN BR LLC does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Copyright © 2014-2022 Farmer's Business Network, Inc. "Farmers Business Network," "FBN," and "Farmers First" are registered trademarks of Farmer's Business Network, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.