The Crop Isn't Uniform, and Neither Was Monday's Market

Corn found support as the first Crop Tour scouts confirmed the variability traders were bracing for, rather than surprising to the upside. USDA has only trimmed its yield estimates this season, and with the western Corn Belt running dry, the market is watching every stop for just how uneven this crop really is.

Monday's Crop Progress underscored it. National corn Good/Excellent slipped another point to 60%, now 11 points below a year ago, and soybeans eased a point to 61%. The spread across the country is stark: Iowa leads at 78% Good/Excellent, while South Dakota sits 33 points below last year and North Dakota 30 points below. Yet the crop is racing ahead on development, with corn in the dough stage jumping to 76%, running about 7 points ahead of the five-year average. Fast, but far from uniform.

Soybeans led the market higher today. The July crush came in a little light, but that was mostly seasonal plant maintenance, and it was more than offset by a bigger drawdown in soybean oil stocks than the trade expected, which is bullish. Add a Reuters report showing the Russia and Ukraine war is pushing India to buy more soybean oil in place of sunflower oil, plus a jump in energy prices that pulled bean oil up with it, and you had a genuinely supportive day for the oil side of the bean market.

Put it all together, a variable crop, slipping conditions, tightening soybean oil, and firmer energy, and it was a broadly supportive day without much pulling the other way. That is the picture FBN Market Intelligence puts together for you every morning, in plain language.

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