Afternoon Market Roundup for 6/21

The grain markets mostly closed lower with oilseeds and meal the only bright spots. The CBOT Soft Wheat July contract closed at 561 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents. Hard Red Wheat (KCBT) July contract closed at 581 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents. Spring Wheat (MGEX) September contract ended at 617 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents. Corn and soybean futures also faced downward pressure, with the July corn contract closing at 435 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents, and the July soybean contract ended at 1,160 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents.

Improved weather forecasts leading to increased global supply expectations were the primary drivers of the pressure in grains. The midday GFS weather model indicated beneficial rainfall across key U.S. growing regions, alleviating drought concerns and putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, global competition from the Black Sea region, particularly Russia, continued to weigh on the markets. Rumors of Chinese purchases of Soybeans buoyed, not only that commodity, but also soy meal and Canola. Technical factors also played a role, with prices breaking below key support levels and triggering stop-loss orders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for many contracts indicated oversold conditions, contributing to the market's volatility.

Looking ahead to the upcoming week, weather forecasts and updates on crop conditions will be paramount on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week as we approach Friday’s release of the USDA's June Acreage Report, expect the market to square up their positions in preparation for updates that have from time to time led to significant market adjustments. Additionally, keep an eye on export demand signals and any shifts in global supply dynamics, particularly from major exporters like Russia and Ukraine. Given the oversold territory for wheat, don’t be surprised if the big break we’ve been on rebounds a bit, allowing that indicator to level out.

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