Before the Bell Summary 6/30

Before the Bell Summary 6/30

Summary

This past week in the grain markets has been quite a ride, with corn leading ags lower on higher stocks and higher acres, with Sep down 33. Soybeans followed corn lower but to a lesser extent, SU24 dn 20. Wheat barely closed lower with spring wheat futures dn 4 in Sep, and Soft Wheat dn 2 ¼, and Hard Wheat only dn 0 ¾.

OPENING CALLS

I expect slightly lower calls for soybeans and corn called 2-4 lower, wheat unch-2 lower

CORN

Corn futures took a significant hit, dropping to contract lows and ending the week down 7.5%. The USDA reported that corn acreage jumped 91.5 million acres, surpassing analysts' expectations due to favorable spring weather. This increase in planted acres put considerable pressure on prices pushing the most active contract (U) dn 15 Friday but 8 off the lows. Basis bids for corn were mostly steady, with some locations, like an Ohio rail terminal, seeing slight increases. U.S. corn exports remained subdued, reflecting higher domestic stocks and competitive global markets. Notably, U.S. corn stocks as of June 1 were the largest in over three decades. At the Gulf, CIF corn bids for June barges were stable.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures closed the week dn 16 for Sep on the week, but nearly unchanged on Friday. The USDA's report of lower-than-expected soybean acreage at 86.1 million acres provided some support to prices, despite early gains being reversed. Basis bids for soybeans were steady to slightly weaker. U.S. soybean export sales were consistent, driven as ongoing demand from international markets continued. Soybean stocks as of June 1 were slightly higher than anticipated, which offset the lower acres. CIF soybean barge bids were steady to weaker, with stable FOB offers reflecting ongoing export demand.

SRW

Soft wheat futures experienced a sharp decline, nearly 16% down for the month of June. High domestic and global stocks negatively impacted the market sentiment. Basis bids for soft wheat remained flat, showing little reaction to USDA reports. Export sales were moderate, facing competition from other wheat-exporting countries. CIF soft wheat bids remained stable, reflecting a balanced market at the Gulf.

HRW

Hard wheat futures also were down slightly on the week, pressured by high domestic stocks and competitive export markets. Basis bids were flat, mirroring the overall market sentiment. Export sales were steady but faced stiff competition. CIF hard wheat bids were stable, indicating steady export demand.

HRS

Spring wheat futures also declined slightly, influenced by global supply dynamics and improved weather conditions in key growing areas, which led to better yield expectations. Basis bids remained unchanged, reflecting balanced market conditions. Export sales were moderate, with competitive global markets. CIF spring wheat bids remained stable, showing ongoing export demand.

AG WEATHER

The weather is forecast cooler with additional moisture as we’re set to open. Better rains are expected across the Northern Plains and Midwest mid-week with up to 2” of rain, partially in hard hit areas. Flooding concerns mount in already hit areas. The Western Corn Belt continues to see additional moisture. The Eastern Corn Belt just limps along. Temps not threatening through the 6-10 day.

RGDS WHEAT PRODUCTION

In Brazil, despite earlier heavy rains, Rio Grande do Sul is expected to produce 55% more wheat this season. This significant increase could reduce Brazil's import needs and open up more export opportunities.

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