What should farmers know about marketing this year?
Cody Bills, director of U.S. producer advisory and brokerage for FBN®, shares what to expect for 2025 grain prices and how producers can best set up their ag operations for success.
Last year was characterized by a bit of a bear market. We started out with prices much higher than where we finished out, and that's been a point of frustration for a lot of producers.
When you look at corn, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, for the ’24–’25 crop year, we're at 1.738 billion bushels, which is below last year's carryout projections.
2022–’23 | 2023–’24 | 2024–’25 | |
December 2024 Corn | 1.360 billion bu | 1.760 mb | 1.738 mb down from nearly 2 billion |
Domestic Stocks/Use Ratio | 9.9% | 11.7% | 11.4% |
Global Ending Stocks | 304.66 mmt | 316.22 mmt | 304.14 mmt |
When you look at soybeans, this is a totally different story. We moved much lower on soybeans.
It's been a very brutal bearish market, and in mid-December we actually made new lows on the January contract, closing down about 20 points. Now the ’24–’25 crop market year is projected at 470 million bushels, nearly doubling the ending stocks over the last three years.
2022–’23 | 2023–’24 | 2024–’25 | |
December 2024 Soybeans Ending Stocks | 264 mb | 342 mb | 470 mb |
Domestic Stocks/Use Ratio | 6.13% | 8.3% | 10.8% |
Global Ending Stocks | 101.1 mmt | 112.16 | 131.74 |
Corn is neutral, and soybeans are bearish.
For corn, the tighter ending stocks than previously projected is going to leave opportunity potentially for better pricing. This is especially true if you get some uncertainty — whether it's bullish headlines out of Ukraine or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) giving about a 70% chance of La Niña presenting itself in the January through March timeframe. While La Niña is oftentimes characterized by dryness in South America, it's been a great season so far down there, and the expectation is that it will be relatively mild.
When you look at soybeans, on the other hand, ending stocks are burdensome nationally and globally. The other concern on the horizon is trade policy that leaves soybeans particularly susceptible.
We need to remember that if soybeans continue its trend lower, it can pull corn lower too. This is because you'll see a sizable switch out of soybean acres into corn acres, and that could have a burdensome effect on ending stocks in the coming production year.
Uncertainty around trade policy could have a dramatic impact. The last time we had tariffs we saw soybean prices fall around 20%.
I recommend our clients take a defensive and proactive approach in this environment of uncertainty. This means making sales when it comes to risk management decisions. At FBN Market Advisory, we've already recommended our clients make sales for next crop year.
Many experts anticipate that 2025 may bring tighter margins for grain producers. To navigate these challenges, it’s important to proactively manage your cash flow and take advantage of market opportunities when they arise. By planning ahead and understanding your financial needs, you can make decisions that benefit your operation.
These are some ways producers may want to consider to invest in their balance sheets:
Evaluate spending and prioritize essential purchases
Compare input prices to find the best value
Opt for maintenance on existing equipment instead of new purchases
Focus on paying down high-interest debt
Understand the true costs of storing grain and evaluate whether it makes financial sense.
In a trending market, if you're not prepared to sell when the market goes lower, you might be left overexposed to the full bear market. As a result, you may end up with more grain in the bins than you normally would.
Additionally, with higher interest rates — potentially around 8% on operating lines — it's important to evaluate whether storing grain is the right financial decision for your operation. For some, it may make sense to liquidate stored grain to reduce interest expenses or take advantage of cash discounts on input purchases. These trade-offs should be carefully considered in the context of your overall financial plan.
It's important that you establish a risk management philosophy that your operation makes decisions by. Make a plan for this next year or find experts that can help you with that.
Our risk management advisors have many years of experience helping producers understand where they're at and what their projected profitability may be. We have proprietary software that helps you take into account production, your insurance selection, cash contracts, and any futures and options exposure. It gives you a matrix of potential price and yield scenarios, helping you stress test where you’re at today and what your profitability would look like if prices go up.
FBN supports producers with multiple grain marketing services, including:
The FBN app can help you make data-driven decisions for your ag operation. In the Markets section of the app, you can:
Monitor your preferred cash markets
Chart basis history and seasonal trends
Calculate the best selling locations based on your storage and trucking costs
Stay current on grain market news
Implement your crop marketing plan with confidence by signing up for FBN’s Market Advisory Essentials, where you’ll gain access to grain market insights, recommendations, and alerts.
Get matched with a personal risk management advisor through Market Advisory Pro to receive customized strategies for your operation based on your risk profile and goals, a weekly visualized risk report, a market newsletter, a customized basis tearsheet, and text market updates.
Sign Up for FBN Crop Marketing
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