A Slow start to Holiday Trade 11/24/25

(Chicago) Markets traded two-sided to start this holiday week, with Wednesday expected to be much lighter than Mon and Tuesday and Black Friday, following Thanksgiving lighter still.

With First Notice Day on Friday though, trade is rolling their December Positions to March to avoid light holiday trade.

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins in comments to CNBC said "We'll have an announcement probably in the next week or two on what that's going to look like," with trade expecting that aid to be focused on the materially disrupted Soybean trade with China.

When asked about previously announced commitments from China Sec. Rollins said “We’ve got a significant way to go. I know they are inking the deal this week or next week. Every sign is their commitment remains true that they will indeed buy, or purchase, 12 million metric tons or put the order in"

In a Truth Social post President Trump recounted that he spoke with Chinese President Xi today, noting that they had discussed Soybeans and Farm Products, among other things, and characterized the agreement that had been made in person, but is still apparently being worked out as “a good, and very important, deal for our Great Farmers.” He also characterized the relationship between the U.S. and China as “extremely strong.”

However, it appears that markets are taking a wait-and-see approach to this ongoing diet of positive messaging.

Beans closed mixed with front months underwater by a couple, while deferreds were as much as 5 higher on the day.

News was light, but weather in South America is expected to take a turn for the better after some fits and starts through November. Importantly weather is expected to normalize and offer a good start to the first crop according to current forecasts.

Corn traded both sides, but closed fractionally lower, holding the 100-day moving average. Ethanol margins were notably improved on this retreat.

Wheat’s crop rating improved 3 to 48% Gd/Ex. Expected precipitation should improve moisture levels in the PNW, which could increase that rating further.

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