USDA Acreage & Stocks: Corn Holds, Wheat Trimmed, Old-Crop Supplies Stay Heavy

Heading into today's report, the average estimate called for corn acres to slip slightly, but with planters running fast this spring, analysts had floated the risk of a higher surprise. USDA landed in between: corn held at 95.3 million acres, unchanged from March and just above the 95.0 million average guess. With no bearish acreage surprise and June 1 corn stocks coming in light at 5.295 billion bushels (under the 5.408 billion estimate), corn firmed after the report. The reaction looked to be driven by the tighter-than-expected old-crop stocks and relief. Nearby July corn jumped about 12 cents while new-crop December added only 7 3/4, the bigger lift in the old-crop month gave a nod to less than expected stocks.

Soybeans rose 0.7 million to 85.4 million, right on expectations, while June 1 stocks at 1.061 billion bushels edged just above estimate. Wheat was the friendly standout: all-wheat acres were cut a full 1 million from March to 42.7 million (winter wheat down to 31.5 million), and stocks came in lighter than expected at 0.920 billion bushels.

Corn was net flat but reshuffled on a state level, with Arkansas (+240k), Nebraska (+200k), and Illinois (+200k) adding while Texas (-150k) and the eastern Belt gave acres back. Soybeans gained in Kansas (+400k) and Ohio (+300k); wheat bled acres out of Oklahoma (-300k), North Dakota (-290k), and Texas (-200k). And old-crop corn stocks now sit at or near multi-decade highs across the western Corn Belt and Plains, a reminder of how much grain last year's record crop left in the bin.

Bottom line: friendly corn and wheat, neutral-to-soft soybeans. With the reports now in the rearview, the market's focus shifts back to weather, which has not offered the bulls much fuel lately. This week's heat is expected to peak and then ease after the holiday as the ridge retrogrades west and rains return to parts of the Belt, taking some of the weather premium with it.

Track the markets by activating your 30-day free trial of FBN Market Intelligence → HERE ← receive daily market updates, AI Crop Price Indicator, custom basis reports and much more.

These materials are for general information purposes only and are not investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any specific financial instrument or to engage in any specific trading strategy. Farmer's Business Network, Inc. operates as an educational entity and is not registered with the CFTC or NFA. The content reflects market commentary and is not tailored to the circumstances of any individual, nor does it constitute individualized investment or trading advice. Questions related to brokerage accounts, margin, or execution should be directed to your broker.