June 2026 WASDE: A Quiet Report for Corn and Soybeans, Tighter Wheat

USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released June 11, 2026. Figures are for the new-crop 2026/27 marketing year unless noted, compared against the May 12, 2026 report.

This was a low-drama report for row-crop growers. USDA called its 2026/27 corn outlook "virtually unchanged" and left soybeans largely alone. The action was in wheat, where USDA trimmed production and ending stocks and lowered the price forecast. The other headline was livestock: New World screwworm entered the WASDE narrative for the first time after the pest was detected in Texas earlier in the month.

If you grow corn or beans, almost nothing on your U.S. balance sheet moved this month. If you grow wheat, especially Hard Red Winter, your carryout got a little tighter, but USDA still marked the cash price forecast down half a dollar. The one place production estimates genuinely shifted was South America, where bigger Brazilian and Argentine corn crops did the most to nudge the world balance sheet.

Corn: no news is the news

For the new-crop 2026/27 marketing year, USDA held corn essentially flat from May. Production stayed at 15.995 billion bushels (95.3 million planted acres, 183.0 bu/acre trend yield) and new-crop ending stocks nudged up just 3 million bushels to 1.960 billion, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at a snug 12.1%. The season-average farm price forecast stayed at $4.40 per bushel. On the old-crop side, USDA raised the 2025/26 carryout 3 million bushels to a seven-year-high 2.145 billion, as a record 3.325 billion bushels of exports were offset by an equal cut to ethanol use. That ran contrary to the trade's expectation for a small reduction.

The real movement was overseas, in South America, covered in its own section below.

How it compares to the trade: analysts had penciled in new-crop carryout near 1.94 billion bushels, so the 1.96 billion print landed a touch above expectations, and the old-crop bump to a seven-year high ran against hopes for a cut. It was a marginally bearish set of numbers, but well inside the noise.

How it compares to history: at 1.960 billion bushels, 2026/27 carryout sits about 185 million bushels (roughly 9%) below the 2025/26 estimate of 2.145 billion, and the 12.1% stocks-to-use ratio is down from 13.0% in the previous marketing year. The corn balance sheet is tightening from one marketing year to the next even though it stood still month-over-month.

Soybeans: flat this month, biofuel the year-over-year story

For the new-crop 2026/27 marketing year, soybeans were the other quiet crop month over month. Production held at 4.435 billion bushels and ending stocks stayed at 310 million bushels (a 6.9% stocks-to-use ratio). The season-average price forecast held at $11.40 per bushel. There was very little for USDA to move from May.

Where the bean balance sheet has actually shifted is across marketing years, on demand. For 2026/27, USDA pegs crush at a record 2.750 billion bushels and soybean oil going to biofuel at 17.8 billion pounds, up about 3.3 billion from the previous marketing year on EPA Renewable Volume Obligations. That is the heavy lifting, and June left the framework intact from May. Strong domestic crush is what keeps the bean balance sheet from loosening despite a larger crop.

How it compares to the trade: expectations clustered near 314 million bushels, so the 310 million print came in marginally below, a slightly friendly surprise, but again within rounding distance.

How it compares to history: ending stocks are down about 30 million bushels from the 340 million carried in the previous marketing year, and the price forecast is a full dollar above the previous marketing year's $10.40. The demand-led tightening is doing real work on price.

Wheat: the one balance sheet that moved

For the new-crop 2026/27 marketing year, wheat is where USDA put its pen to work this month. Production was cut 18 million bushels to 1.543 billion, driven almost entirely by lower Hard Red Winter output. That cut flowed straight through to ending stocks, which dropped 18 million bushels to 744 million. The stocks-to-use ratio eased from 40.7% to 39.7%.

Despite the tighter carryout, USDA lowered the season-average farm price forecast by 50 cents to $6.00 per bushel, a reminder that wheat price is being set as much by the global picture and ample world supply as by the U.S. line items.

How it compares to the trade: pre-report estimates sat near 760 million bushels, so the 744 million print was a genuine bullish surprise on the stocks side, even as USDA marked the price down.

How it compares to history: this is the number that tells the year-over-year story. At 744 million bushels, 2026/27 wheat carryout is roughly 20% below the 935 million estimated for 2025/26. Production at 1.543 billion is down sharply from 1.985 billion in the previous marketing year, reflecting both fewer harvested acres and a yield of 47.0 bu/acre, well off the previous marketing year's record. U.S. wheat is the tightest of the three crops relative to its own recent history.

South America: the month's real mover

If anything genuinely changed the global picture this month, it was South America, and specifically corn, not soybeans. The revisions landed on the old-crop 2025/26 harvest now coming out of the field: USDA raised Brazil's 2025/26 corn crop about 3 million tonnes to 138 million tonnes and Argentina's about 2 million tonnes to 61 million tonnes. New-crop 2026/27 South American corn was actually left unchanged from May, at a record 139 million tonnes for Brazil and 55 million tonnes for Argentina. Soybeans saw only one change: USDA raised Argentina's old-crop 2025/26 soybean crop 2 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes. Everything else held, with Brazil at a record 180 million tonnes for 2025/26 (186 million for the new crop) and Argentina's new crop unchanged at 50 million tonnes.

Those extra old-crop corn bushels are what moved the world balance sheet. Global 2025/26 corn ending stocks were raised about 6.4 million tonnes to 303.4 million tonnes. Because one marketing year's ending stocks become the next year's beginning stocks, that bigger carry-in flowed straight into 2026/27: new-crop world corn ending stocks rose 3.7 million tonnes to 281.2 million tonnes. That is still historically tight, only just off the decade low of 277.5 million tonnes USDA penciled in back in May, but no longer falling. The practical read for a U.S. grower: the rest of the world is sitting on a little more corn than it appeared a month ago, and that added cushion is part of why new-crop futures stayed pinned near multi-month lows even with a snug U.S. balance sheet.

Outside that Argentine bump, South American soybean production held, so the world soybean balance sheet barely moved. The extra Argentine bushels lifted old-crop 2025/26 world soybean ending stocks just 0.4 million tonnes to 125.5 million, and new-crop 2026/27 ending stocks were essentially flat at 124.9 million tonnes. The month-over-month soybean story, in other words, was almost entirely about where bushels sit, not how many there are.

Closing thoughts

For corn and soybeans, this report gave the market no new reason to move. The marketing-year tightening story is intact, but June changed nothing you didn't already know in May.....

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