Soybeans & Wheat slump into Christmas

(Chicago) December 19th, 2025

Soybeans have fallen $.90 over the past month, as managed funds have continued to exit their long positions with rationing supply increasingly unlikely amid tepid Chinese demand.

According to Bloomberg reporting this week, China has bought about half of their 12.5 million metric ton (MMT) commitment that President Trump had announced mid November. Secretary Bessent in comments to CNBC and others publicly pushed the deadline out to the end of February, but even that in my opinion, seems subject to revision with no hard commitments publicly agreed to by Chinese officials. Additionally, Reuters reporting this morning showed that Chinese state buyers had intended to sell 3-4 MMT of state reserves, ostensibly to make room for these US purchases, but the last offering was poorly subscribed to with only about 1/3rd of the offered beans purchased. Against the backdrop of another record or near record crop in Brazil and significant reserves from last year's crop, it seems difficult to find the necessary demand to drain exporter (US, BRZ, ARG) carryouts.

Wheat also wrapped up the worst week in quite some time, dropping ~$0.35/bu this week before recovering just a bit this Friday. This decline in Wheat has shrunk the spread between Corn and Wheat to the point that Wheat, particularly in the Plains can work into rations, which Feedlots seem likely to be doing or planning on doing. This, if confirmed, seems likely to shrink corn feeding, already questionable amid falling herd size.

Corn, however has remained ebullient with exports a true standout and pushing projected corn exports to new records, which could still rise based on historical export pace.

We're still looking for a signed agreement with China, and a biofuel policy that industry is hoping will be coming in January.

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