A Big Week for Grains: Now What?

Markets closed early for the Fourth, but the holiday week was anything but quiet. Here is what moved grain prices, and what our Market Intelligence subscribers were reading each morning as it happened.

The week turned on Tuesday's USDA data. The June Acreage report cut all-wheat plantings by more than a million acres from March, and with heavy abandonment, harvested wheat area is now projected at its lowest since 1877. Corn acres held essentially unchanged near 95.3 million, defying some fears of an increase, while soybeans nudged up to 85.4 million, right in line with expectations.

The bullish spark came from the Quarterly Stocks side. June 1 corn stocks landed below even the lowest trade estimate, pointing to record demand for the quarter and triggering short-covering that lifted corn off its contract lows. Wheat led the rebound on the acreage surprise, and prices firmed into the holiday.

Around that, the week brought a steady export sales report, the May crush, and a drought monitor that pulled back across much of the Corn Belt.

The bigger question is what comes next, and the wild card everyone is watching is the late-July weather. A brief holiday heat wave is set to ease early next week, but the models diverge sharply on what follows: whether heat rebuilds across the central U.S. into the back half of the month, and how much rain arrives with the cooldown. The latest overnight run actually trimmed those rains, leaving the Plains and western Corn Belt drier than earlier forecasts had shown. With corn pollinating now and soybean yield made in August, a hotter and drier turn at the wrong moment is the real swing factor for yields and prices. That is what the trade will be weighing when grain markets reopen Sunday evening.

Our team synthesizes all of it, USDA data, weather models, and global supply, into one clear morning read.

Curious what that looks like? Start a free trial of FBN Market Intelligence -->Here<-- .