Whiplash in the Soybean Markets 11/17/2025

January soybean futures briefly rallied 35 1/4 cents before settling 3 cents off the high Monday, Nov 17. The early surge erased Friday’s washout as the market reacted to a new round of politically driven headlines and fresh rumors of Chinese buying. Traders entered the week preoccupied with the wide gap between the administration’s highly publicized purchase expectations and the very limited USDA-confirmed sales, so when both the President and Treasury Secretary Bessent made confident statements that earlier claims on their part would be fulfilled, the market jumped to open the day session to reverse weakness overnight. By the middle of the session rumors were making the rounds that China was a notable buyer of U.S. beans in both the U.S. Gulf (NOLA) and PNW with double-digit cargoes rumoured to have traded. In the aftermath of the government shutdown, calculating this uptick in buying poses a particularly difficulty for traders, as current sales not subject to overnight flashes won’t be released until early January.

Domestic data complicated the picture though. Export inspections released this morning showed no validation of the rumored Chinese business, with weekly volumes at 43.2 million bushels, barely half of typical mid-November levels and far short of what is needed to catch up with USDA’s already lowered export target. China is still missing completely from the report. In contrast, NOPA processors delivered a record October crush of 227.647 million bushels, far above expectations and a new record for any month, and another sign that domestic demand continues to outperform. Even so, the bullish crush headline had a bearish component as soyoil stocks rose more than anticipated, keeping oil supplies comfortable.

Today’s soybean rally was driven partly by rumor, partly political reassurance, partly strong domestic use with today’s October crush numbers and partly short-covering in a market that had sold off hard following the USDA’s bearish November report. While China chatter and a favorable technical setup provided just enough spark for a sharp intraday rally, the core fundamentals remain mostly unchanged: sluggish inspections, limited confirmed Chinese purchases, ample global supplies, and stiff South American competition continue to cap upside potential.

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