Markets Sell Off, 11/19/2025

Grain markets retreated across the board today as traders reassessed the strength and sustainability of this week’s soybean rally. Despite back-to-back days of sizable Chinese purchases, soybeans closed sharply lower, signaling that the bullish enthusiasm which pushed futures to 17-month highs may be losing steam. Corn and wheat followed, each giving back nearly 2%, while broader sentiment leaned risk-off with crude down 2% and the dollar index climbing back above 100.

Soybeans printed a textbook technical reversal over the past 24 hours. Tuesday’s session ended with a doji—a classic sign of indecision—after a sharp multi-day rally. Today delivered the confirmation: a decisive downside follow-through that closed at session lows. Together, I think these signals point to fatigue in an uptrend that had already stretched U.S. soybean prices well out of line with global competitiveness.

USDA confirmed another 330,000 MT of soybeans sold to China this morning, on top of yesterday’s 792,000 MT, bringing the two-day total to 1.122 MMT, the largest back-to-back flash sales of the marketing year since November 2023. Since the late-October summit, confirmed sales now total 1.354 MMT, and traders expect additional cargoes (reported overnight) to show in Thursday’s flash report. However, the market’s reaction tells the story: prices fell anyway.

These purchases are widely viewed as political, not economic. U.S. soybeans remain roughly $1.00 per bushel more expensive than comparable Brazilian supplies, even before accounting for private-sector tariffs. That price gap explains why nearly all recent buying has come from state entities such as COFCO and Sinograin rather than commercial crushers. Political purchases can appear quickly, but they can stop just as quickly. Even after this week’s activity, China remains far from the goal of 12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by year-end, and the pace required to reach that target becomes less realistic with each passing day.

Soybean prices also faced pressure from a Reuters report suggesting the EPA is considering delaying its proposed cuts to incentives for imported biofuels by one or even two years. A delay would soften the expected reduction in renewable fuel credit values and could ultimately limit U.S. soybean oil demand, reinforcing today’s weaker tone across the soy complex.

Corn ended the day 7–8¢ lower, with Dec25 closing at $4.2975 after yet another failed attempt to break above the 200-day moving average. Today marked the second clear rejection at that level in a week, reinforcing it as a firm technical ceiling. Fundamentally, export inspections remain impressive and South Korea did purchase 65,000 MT of optional-origin feed corn today, though it remains unclear whether the U.S. will capture that business.

KC and Chicago Wheat finished 8–11¢ lower as yesterday’s optimism faded and the complex followed soybeans lower. The market continues to digest strong new-crop supplies coming out of Argentina and Australia, alongside ongoing strength in Black Sea production. Wheat had been supported by speculation that China might extend its political purchases into U.S. wheat, but with no evidence so far, futures found little reason to hold recent gains. Ukraine also announced it will not restrict 2025/26 wheat exports, adding another layer of supply certainty to an already amply supplied global balance sheet.

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