July WASDE: An Opportunity For Farmers?

The July WASDE landed on the bullish side, and corn did the heavy lifting.

Corn. USDA cut the 2026/27 corn carryout 170 million bushels to 1.790 billion, comfortably below the average trade guess of 1.873 billion and down from June's 1.960 billion. Old-crop 2025/26 stocks were trimmed too, 125 million bushels to 2.020 billion, again under expectations. That pulls the new-crop stocks-to-use ratio down to a tighter 11.0% from 12.1% in June. Production actually ticked up 5 million bushels to a round 16.0 billion on an unchanged 183.0 bushel yield, so the tightening came from lower carry-in and stronger use, not a smaller crop. Coming in under the estimate on both crop years is a friendly print.

Soybeans.New-crop carryout held at 310 million bushels, a touch below the 330-million average estimate, so it reads friendly even though USDA nudged production up 40 million to 4.475 billion. Old-crop stocks eased 10 million to 330 million. The season-average price stayed at $11.40, and record crush demand keeps the bean sheet from loosening despite the bigger crop.

Wheat.Ending stocks slipped 22 million bushels to 722 million, down from June but a hair above the 714-million trade estimate. So wheat was the one crop that landed slightly heavy versus expectations even as it fell month-over-month. Production eased 7 million to 1.536 billion.

Around the world. Global 2026/27 stocks fell for all three: corn to 275.3 million tonnes, wheat to 272.8, and soybeans to 124.2, each below both June and the trade's estimate. USDA raised Argentina's old-crop corn to 63 million tonnes, but the tighter U.S. picture outweighed it.

Our take. This was a supportive report, especially for corn, which printed friendlier than the trade expected on both old and new crop. It does not change the season. The crop is still a long way from made, and the June 30 acreage numbers and summer weather will matter more than these balance-sheet tweaks. But a below-expectations corn carryout is more support to a market that traded lower most of June. Our AI Crop Price Indicator has also moved more in line with seasonals and is not showing a strong directional lean right now. For anyone sitting behind the recommended sales levels, that is likely an opportunity to catch up.

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