A forgettable December WASDE 11/9/2025

(CHICAGO, IL) Outside markets were quiet today as traders largely sat on their hands ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision. Grain markets reacted to a December WASDE that delivered exactly what was expected: a report nearly devoid of meaningful domestic changes. The USDA, as expected, didn’t make meaningful changes to most crops and avoided the harder adjustments on soybeans, wheat, and corn feed use, leaving most balance sheets unchanged and placing the burden back on market participants to interpret the global supply environment. As a result, technical levels and money flow remain the primary drivers of intraday trade rather than fresh fundamentals.

Corn

Corn received the only notable adjustment, with USDA increasing 2025–26 exports by 125 million bushels (mil bu) to 3.2 billion bushels (bil bu). That cut ending stocks by the same 125 mil bu to 2.029 bil bu and adds a supportive tone in the near term. The problem is that this export number is aggressive. Hitting it requires exceptionally strong weekly shipments and sales all the way into late summer, even during typically slow periods. Meanwhile, I think feed use remains overstated and will almost certainly need to be trimmed once final production is known in January. Corn gets a short-term boost, but the medium-term balance sheet still carries considerable risk if export momentum fades or South American crops continue to improve. A saving grace might be a still hoped for production cut as yield results were decidedly uneven in some parts of Iowa and the surrounding states according to farmer reports and other sources we follow.

Beans

Soybeans were left untouched, which amounts to USDA punting on the export issue for another month. The export projection of 1.635 bil bu simply doesn’t match the current sales pace. To justify it, the U.S. would need 400–420 million bushels of new sales by January 1, an outcome that grows less plausible by the day. At the same time, South America continues to trend toward large or record crops, and Argentina’s government just made its exports even more competitive by cutting grain and soy product taxes. The U.S. soybean balance sheet looks increasingly vulnerable to a future demand revision, and rallies will struggle unless weather causes major damage. Technically, there’s a Head & Shoulders pattern that’s been built which usually signifies a change in trend. Short term the market seems to be targeting closing the gap left at the end of October from 1063 to 1070-¼.

Wheat

Wheat saw no domestic changes, but the global picture is heavy. USDA raised production across every major exporter (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, and Russia), adding nearly 9 million metric tons to world output. These increases matter because they sit within the exporting bloc, which means very stiff competition in global tenders through the first quarter. With the U.S. struggling to gain traction in international markets and no bullish catalyst in sight, rallies will likely need to be treated as selling opportunities.

Fed Rate Preview

Tomorrow’s Fed decision is the main event for broader markets. Futures imply an overwhelming probability of a quarter-point cut, but the cut itself is not the focal point. What matters is whether the Fed signals a continued easing path into 2026 or hints that the cycle is nearing a pause. Recent labor data has firmed slightly, and global bond markets are already uneasy as several major central banks hint at the end of their own easing phases. A “hawkish cut” is a real possibility, and markets could react negatively if the Fed fails to validate expectations for additional rate relief next year. At the moment nearly 3 in 4 market participants are expecting at least one more rate cut by the middle of June on top of what the market is telling us is a widely anticipated cut tomorrow.

Stay up to date with market prices with FBN's TradeDesk with Live Market Data.

If you’d like to experience live quotes in our FBN TradeDesk platform, you can take a 14-day free demo here.

Disclaimer: The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial and may not be suitable for all investors. All information, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by FBN BR LLC shall be construed as a solicitation. FBN BR LLC does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For the purposes of quality assurance and compliance, emails, text messages and phone calls to and from FBN BR LLC may be recorded and archived.