Heat, Dry Pockets, and a Softening Forecast

A strong heat wave is building across the central and eastern U.S. this week with many wondering how long this might last as we went into the weekend last Friday. The maps show a patchwork of dry pockets which could worsen if hot, dry weather became entrenched in early July.

The deficits are concentrated across the western and southern Plains, the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, and the Deep South, while much of the core Corn Belt sits adequate-to-wet after June's rains. The encouraging part: the latest precipitation outlook aims a band of rain from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with scattered storms across the Dakotas and Upper Midwest and a wetter monsoon signal into the Delta, overlapping several of the areas that need it most. The driest western High Plains and western Gulf look to miss out, so those pockets may deepen.

Over the weekend the outlook has softened. By Monday, the model guidance turned this into a shorter heat event: the dangerous heat is expected to peak around the July 4 weekend, then ease as the ridge retrogrades westward with the potential for storms to return to the Corn Belt. The near-term heat is real with corn nearing pollination, but the threat of a prolonged, crop-killing dome has eased rather than intensified which has put pressure on prices this morning.

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