India Deal Draws Attention, Market Access Details Unclear - 2/3/26

(Chicago) February 3, 2026. The US and India announced a framework trade agreement this week that could reshape ag trade flows between the two countries. President Trump said the deal will cut US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from roughly 50%, including rescinding an extra penalty tariff imposed over India’s purchases of Russian oil. In return, India agreed to expand purchases of American goods across key sectors and provide expanded, though still limited, market access for US ag products, according to Reuters.

US Ag Secretary Rollins hailed the pact, saying “The new US-India deal will export more American farm products to India’s massive market, lifting prices and pumping cash into rural America. In 2024, America’s agricultural trade deficit with India was $1.3 billion. India’s growing population is an important market for American agricultural products, and today’s deal will go a long way to reducing this deficit.”

Despite the headlines and Sec. Rollins’ rosy prognosis, significant uncertainty remains around which farm products will be covered, the timeline for tariff changes, and the specifics of the special concessions India is willing to make on sensitive agricultural sectors such as dairy or certain grains. In the past, Indian trade negotiators have jealously guarded these areas, as they’re political third rails in the country. No comprehensive text has yet been released detailing tariff schedules or implementation dates as of this writing.

For US producers, the potential upside is significant but hinges on the specifics and execution. If India does open meaningful access for American crops and food products, it could represent one of the largest incremental markets in years and help support export prices, particularly for soybeans, corn, and other bulk commodities. However, until the scope of market access and tariff elimination is formalized and enacted, the agriculture sector is left to hold on to public statements, as with the China deal, rather than confirmed, enforceable commitments.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/us-dropping-25-separate-tariff-indian-imports-after-pledge-cut-russian-oil-white-2026-02-02/

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/trump-says-agreed-trade-deal-with-india-2026-02-02/

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/us-agriculture-secretary-signals-more-exports-to-india-fuelling-import-concerns-10510525/

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