Yields, Stocks, and Surprises: USDA’s Big Reveal Hits Monday - 1/9/2026

(Chicago) Producers are watching closely ahead of the USDA's most significant data release of the year on Monday, January 12 at 11:00 AM Central. The January report includes updates to U.S. and global balance sheets through the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Final Crop Production, Quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports. These reports will provide the first full picture of 2025 production, use, and acreage. Market participants are positioned for possible adjustments to yield and demand, with speculative short positions still held in both corn and soybeans, according to the latest CFTC data.

In corn, many analysts anticipate a modest reduction in yield from USDA's current estimate of 186.0 bushels per acre. Private estimates reported by StoneX and RJO range between 183.5 and 185.0. However, even a small downward revision may not offset the size of the crop. The trade is focused on the Quarterly Stocks report, which will offer insight into feed and residual usage. Current USDA estimates for feed demand have been questioned by analysts citing flat livestock inventories. Pre-report expectations suggest December 1 stocks could reach near-record levels around 13.0 billion bushels, which may pressure price if confirmed.

Soybean market attention remains on the demand side. While export sales to unknown destinations have continued, cumulative totals remain well below seasonal targets. USDA data indicates soybean export commitments are approximately 15 percent behind the pace needed to meet current projections. Analysts expect a slight reduction in soybean yield, possibly to 52.7 bushels per acre, but weak export performance may limit any tightening in the balance sheet. Brazilian soybeans continue to offer competitive pricing, which could weigh on U.S. sales despite recent flash activity. Soybeans have bumped up against the 200 Day Moving average four days in a row now, with progressively higher lows creating a "pennant" a signal that can align with higher upcoming prices,

However, Monday’s reports could also deliver unexpected pressure if the data fails to confirm the technical breakout.

Winter wheat acres are expected to decline year over year, with trade estimates near 32.4 million acres. U.S. wheat exports have remained firm, running ahead of seasonal benchmarks, but market impact may be limited unless USDA revises global stocks or adjusts domestic demand. With speculative interest in wheat still light and futures mostly rangebound, wheat is likely to take direction from corn post-report unless a surprise develops in seeded acreage or stocks data.

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